Bitdeer Technologies Group is running hard into the close of May — up 23% on the week and 60% over the past month — yet short sellers have barely flinched, leaving a tightly coiled tension between price momentum and persistent bear positioning.
The short interest story has shifted notably since the previous note from May 20, when short interest was flagged at roughly 40% of free float. The current reading is 27.5% of free float — a meaningful reduction — though that figure still represents around 52.9 million shares short and a month-on-month build of nearly 15%. The ORTEX short score climbed back to 74.2 on May 28, up from 69.7 just the day before, and the stock ranks in the 3rd percentile for short score across comparable names. That means virtually every peer carries less bear positioning. Days to cover runs at 7.1 on the latest FINRA fortnightly figure. What has clearly changed is the borrow market. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply — down 32% over the past month to just 0.96% APR — a level that makes shorting almost frictionless. Borrow availability has loosened dramatically too, moving from the very tight sub-80% range seen in late April to 118.6% now, meaning roughly 1.2 shares remain available for every share currently borrowed. That is a market telling you there is room to add shorts without squeezing anyone out.
Options traders are not hedging the rally — they are leaning into it. The put/call ratio has fallen to 0.50, its lowest reading of the past year and more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.54. The PCR 52-week low is 0.497, so current positioning is essentially at its most call-heavy in twelve months. That is a striking divergence: a heavily shorted name where options traders are actively buying calls rather than protecting downside.
The Street took notice after the May 14 earnings print, which delivered a modest 1% one-day gain but a 13% five-day move. Multiple analysts raised targets on May 15. B. Riley lifted its target to $23 while keeping a Buy. Rosenblatt moved to $25 from $18, also maintaining Buy. Needham nudged to $19. Cantor Fitzgerald — which had downgraded to Neutral back in April and slashed its target to $10 — raised back to $15 while staying on the sidelines. With the stock now at $18.38 and a consensus mean target near $21.50, the implied upside from here is modest at roughly 17%. EPS momentum ranks in the 99th percentile on a 30-day basis and 98th on 90 days — the strongest forward estimate revisions in essentially the entire universe. EV/EBITDA has expanded to 16.2x, up roughly 3.8 turns over the past month, reflecting the re-rating embedded in the price move.
The ownership picture adds an interesting layer. Sachem Head Capital Management entered a new position of 9.6 million shares as of March 31, making it the third-largest disclosed institutional holder at just under 4% of shares. Tether Holdings added 6.1 million shares in Q1 to reach a 15.8% stake. BlackRock added roughly 1 million shares through April, and Azora Capital added 2.6 million over Q1. The buying has been broad-based on the institutional side, even as one insider — identified only as an investment advisory company — sold 306,000 shares in April 2023. That trade is now over three years old and carries no current signal value.
Among close peers, KEEL led the crypto mining complex this week with a 33% gain, while IREN added 22% and CIFR rose 26%. MARA was the clear laggard at 7%. BTDR's 23% gain sits in the middle of the pack — notable given it carries the heaviest short positioning of the group by a wide margin. The next earnings date is flagged for August 12, and between now and then the key watch points are whether short sellers begin to cover against a backdrop of loosening availability, or whether the cheap borrow cost keeps new shorts entering the name even as the price climbs.
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