YPF Options Market Flashes Caution as Shorts Rebuild

Options traders have spent the past week loading up on downside protection in YPF. The put-call ratio climbed from around 0.60 to 0.73 over five trading days — running more than 1.5 standard deviations above its 20-day mean. The stock has dropped roughly 9.3% over the same week.

Short sellers are moving in the same direction.

Shorts Rebuild After a Brief Retreat

YPF's estimated short interest jumped 18% in a single day on June 25, reaching 6.66 million shares. That follows a quieter mid-June period when short positions had drifted lower from a late-May peak near 7.3 million shares.

The quick rebuild stands out. Short interest is now up 13.7% over one week.

Cost to borrow tells a similar story. CTB hit 0.50% on June 25 — up 110% over the week — after briefly touching 0.23% on June 19. That low-water mark appears to have attracted fresh short entry.

Availability remains very loose. At 778% of short interest, there are roughly seven shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. That compares to a 52-week trough of 46% availability. There is no near-term squeeze pressure in the lending market.

The Analyst Gap

UBS raised its target to $48 in late May while holding a Neutral rating. The stock now trades at $45.76 — just below that revised target. JP Morgan carries an Overweight rating but cut its target to $44 last October, below the current price. The consensus mean sits at $57.37, implying meaningful upside from here. The gap between that target and recent price action is widening.

Next earnings are scheduled for August 7.

What to Watch

Three distinct signals — rising put-call ratio, accelerating short interest, and a CTB doubling in a week — are all pointing the same way while the stock slides. The borrow market remains ample, so the positioning reflects a directional view rather than a forced technical trade. Whether the options and short positioning proves prescient or overcrowded will likely depend on macro developments in Argentina and the August earnings print.

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Data summary

• Price: $45.76 (–9.3% on the week)
• Short interest: 6.66M shares, +18% day-on-day, +13.7% week-on-week
• Cost to borrow: 0.50%, +110% week-on-week
• Availability: 778% of short interest (very loose)
• Put-call ratio: 0.73, 1.6 standard deviations above 20-day mean
• Next earnings: August 7, 2026