YPF heads into its August 11 Q2 earnings report with short sellers continuing to step back and the lending market offering no friction for anyone who wants to press the short side.
The short-unwind story that defined the pre-earnings setup three days ago has continued without reversal. Short interest has held near 5.1 million shares — down roughly 24% from early July's 6.7 million — and edged marginally lower still over the past week, falling another 1.2%. Borrow conditions remain loose: availability is running at 378%, well above the 52-week floor of 46%, and cost to borrow has actually fallen 22% over the week to 0.49%. The ORTEX short score is essentially flat at 43.5, hovering near where it sat three days ago and well below mid-July levels, confirming that short-side conviction has not recovered ahead of the print. Options positioning offers no particular alarm either — the put/call ratio of 0.77 is barely half a standard deviation above its 20-day average, a muted reading given the range runs from 0.28 to 1.42 over the past year.
The analyst debate is split between a cautious middle and selective bulls. UBS raised its target to $48 in late May but kept a Neutral rating, essentially parking at a level close to where the stock is now trading at $49.16. JP Morgan, which upgraded to Overweight in early 2025 with a target near $60, has the most optimistic published view among bellwether firms. The consensus mean target of $58.52 implies roughly 19% upside from the current price — a gap that reflects bulls focused on Vaca Muerta shale production growth and improving government relations under Argentina's current administration, while bears point to peso volatility, the absence of a dividend since 2019, and an EV/EBITDA near 27x that leaves little room for operational disappointment. The P/E of 8.2x and price-to-book of 1.3x do provide some valuation cushion, but those multiples are shaped as much by Argentina's discount rate and sovereign risk as by company fundamentals.
The CEO and two executive vice presidents bought stock in early July — modest amounts, ranging from $131,000 to $201,000 per transaction — a signal that is constructive in direction even if limited in scale. Net insider buying over the past 90 days totals roughly $547,000. The state of Argentina remains the dominant holder at 51%, which means government policy decisions — on fuel pricing, FX, and capital controls — continue to shape the investment case more than any single quarterly result.
The August 11 print will test whether YPF's operational delivery on Vaca Muerta output and downstream margins can justify the 4% one-month gain after the stock's recent pullback of 6% over the past week — and whether the easing short pressure reflects genuine conviction in the bull case or simply a positioning reset ahead of a macro-driven catalyst.
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