ALMS Earnings: Bulls and Bears Set for a Clinical Reckoning

Alumis Inc. reports its quarterly earnings Monday with two sharply opposed views of its TYK2 inhibitor pipeline colliding just as the stock hits its strongest level in over a month.

The short side has grown louder heading into the print. Short interest climbed 28% over the past month to 13.6% of free float — roughly 13.2 million shares — with the steepest jump coming in a single session on June 25, when bears added 16% in one day. The ORTEX short score jumped to 72.1 from 64.5 a week earlier, the sharpest move in the 30-day window. Yet the lending market does not yet signal panic on either side. Availability tightened 45% on the week but remains at 279% — around three shares available for every two already borrowed — and borrowing costs are cheap at 0.56%. New short positions are easy to establish; the setup for a mechanical squeeze is not in place. Options traders tell a different story. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.23, well below its 20-day average of 0.29 and roughly 1.6 standard deviations below the mean — a notable lean toward calls that runs counter to the short-side conviction.

The bull and bear cases hinge almost entirely on pipeline outcomes. Bulls point to phase II and phase III data for envudeucitinib and A-005 that show competitive or superior efficacy to peers, an oral formulation with no fasting requirement, and analyst targets that cluster well above the current $26.40 price. Most recent analyst moves, from mid-May, were upgrades in target price from Wells Fargo and Guggenheim, which both maintained positive ratings. Oppenheimer raised its target to $55 in late March. The mean consensus target of $40.10 implies roughly 52% upside from current levels — though the stock has already gained 18% in the past month, closing much of that gap. Bears focus on the binary nature of the bet: no approved therapy, a cash-hungry balance sheet, and stiffening competition from Takeda's zasocitinib and J&J's icotrokinra. HC Wainwright cut its rating to Neutral in May, a dissenting note amid broadly positive analyst direction. The Piotroski F-score of 2 and deeply negative return on assets underline how much depends on a successful regulatory pathway rather than existing financial strength.

The stock has gained 13% in the past week and 18% over the past month, arriving at Monday's print with momentum firmly in the bulls' camp but short interest building at the fastest rate seen in months. Correlated Nasdaq peers such as BIOA and ELVN also moved higher on the week — up 14% and 11% respectively — suggesting the broader clinical-stage biotech tape provided tailwind rather than resistance. That context matters: the rally into earnings is partly sector-driven, which leaves the stock more exposed to any company-specific disappointment.

Monday's print will test whether the pipeline data and trial execution that underpins the bull consensus can justify a share price that has nearly tripled from its December lows — and whether short sellers who rebuilt aggressively into the move have timed the trade correctly.