ALMS heads into its August 13 earnings print with short sellers rapidly unwinding positions and options traders leaning decisively toward calls over puts.
The positioning shift is striking. Short interest has collapsed by more than half over the past month — down 59% — to around 5.8% of the free float. The unwind accelerated in late July, when borrowed shares roughly halved in a single week from around 13 million to just over 6 million. Borrow conditions now reflect that retreat: availability has opened to more than 1,000% of current short interest, meaning lenders hold roughly ten shares available for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is running below 0.6%, confirming there is no squeeze pressure. Options traders match this less defensive posture. The put/call ratio is 0.35, about 1.4 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.57 — a notably call-heavy lean ahead of the release. The stock is up 5.4% on the week to $27.53, though still off about 3% on the month.
The bull and bear cases diverge sharply on a single question: whether Alumis can translate its TYK2 inhibitor data into a credible commercial story before the funding clock forces dilution. Bulls point to positive Phase III psoriasis data, an ongoing SLE global trial, and a mean analyst price target near $40 — roughly 46% above current levels — with eight buy-equivalent ratings. Wells Fargo and Oppenheimer both carry targets above $50, and Morgan Stanley has an Overweight with a $38 target. The lone dissenter, HC Wainwright, reiterated Neutral with a $25 target earlier this month — below the current price — reflecting concern that the valuation already prices in a great deal of clinical success. Bears point to deeply negative return on assets, an EPS trajectory still firmly in pre-revenue territory, and ongoing dilution risk as the company burns cash to fund trials. The ORTEX short score has eased to 47.9 from above 54 in late July, moving toward neutral from a previously more bearish read.
Institutional ownership adds an interesting layer. FMR (Fidelity) added nearly 5.8 million shares in the quarter to June, making it one of the largest new buyers among major holders. T. Rowe Price added over 3.2 million shares in the same period. BlackRock added roughly 1 million shares as recently as July 31. These are not small increments — together they represent meaningful conviction at prices near or below current levels. Against that, a cluster of insiders — including the CFO, CMO, and CSO — all sold small amounts on August 3, though at values below $90,000 each and with the lowest significance rating, suggesting routine plan-driven disposals rather than a directional signal.
Past earnings reactions have skewed negative on day one: the four most recent prints produced one-day moves of -1.8%, -0.1%, -8.0%, and -0.04%, with the five-day picture similarly mixed. Thursday's release will test whether the institutional buyers who piled in during Q2 are right that the pipeline momentum justifies a stock trading well above its sole dissenting analyst's target — and whether the short sellers who just covered at pace had better timing than those still holding the bullish call position.
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