MDT Bears Emerge After Earnings: Cost-to-Borrow Spikes 893%

Options markets and the lending pool are sending the same signal on MDT this week. Short sellers are moving with unusual urgency following analyst target cuts after June earnings.

Cost-to-Borrow Whipsaws — Then Jumps

The borrow market told a confusing story over the past week. Cost-to-borrow plunged to 0.21% on June 25 — near historic lows. Then it exploded. By June 26, CTB hit 4.30%, a 893% surge in a single week.

That spike reflects fresh demand for borrows, not a thinning pool. Availability remains extremely loose at 6,898% — roughly 741 million shares are still available to lend. Borrowers are not competing for scarce stock. They are simply arriving in numbers large enough to move the rate sharply.

Short Interest Climbs Steadily

Short interest on MDT has risen 31% over the past month. It now stands at 1.5% of free float — low in absolute terms, but the trajectory is clear.

The move began accelerating on June 22. Shares short climbed from roughly 14.7 million in late May to 19.2 million by June 26. The bulk of that build came in one week: a 16% jump from June 19 to June 26.

Days-to-cover sits at just 1.52 days, so a squeeze is not the concern. The story is directional: a coordinated, post-earnings bet against the stock.

Options Market Adds a Third Data Point

The put-call ratio rose to 0.648 on June 29. That is 3.0 standard deviations above the 20-day average of 0.557. The 52-week range runs from 0.39 to 1.01, so the current reading sits in the upper third.

Traders are paying up for downside protection. That matches the short-interest build and the CTB move. All three signals point the same direction.

What Triggered This

Earnings on June 3 sent the stock up 11% in one day. But analysts were not uniformly impressed with the underlying numbers. Five firms cut their price targets in the days that followed. Goldman Sachs trimmed to $83. Wells Fargo dropped from $114 to $102. Bernstein cut from $112 to $97. The consensus mean target sits at $98 — 21% above the June 26 close of $80.98. That gap suggests analysts still see long-term value. Short sellers, for now, disagree.

CEO Geoffrey Martha sold 41,936 shares at $83.32 on June 4 — a $3.5 million transaction. Other executives sold on the same date. These were orderly, plan-based disposals near the post-earnings high, but the timing adds context to the broader picture.

The ORTEX short score stands at 32.2, up from 29.0 two weeks ago. Still moderate, but moving in one direction.

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• Short interest (% of FF): 1.50%, +16% week-on-week, +31% month-on-month
• Cost-to-borrow: 4.30% (+893% week-on-week)
• Availability: 6,898% — lending pool remains very deep
• Put-call ratio: 0.648, +3.0 sigma vs. 20-day average
• Short score: 32.2 (up from 29.0 on June 15)
• Analyst consensus target: $98.00 vs. close of $80.98
• Next earnings: August 18, 2026