BLSH Borrow Costs Explode as Cost-to-Borrow Surges 561%

The borrow market story for BLSH has shifted again — and the cost-to-borrow spike now overtakes availability as the headline signal.

Since yesterday's note flagged near-total lending exhaustion, one key metric has moved dramatically. Cost to borrow jumped to 8.1% on July 1 — up from just 1.39% the day prior. That is a 561% increase in a single week. For most of June, CTB sat in a narrow band between 1.2% and 2.0%. The move to 8.1% marks a step-change, not a drift.

The Cost-to-Borrow Spike Explains the Availability Bounce

Yesterday's article noted availability at just 2% — the borrow pool essentially empty. Today, availability has recovered to 11.4%. That sounds like relief. It is not. The more likely read: at 8.1% CTB, the cost of holding a short position has risen sharply enough that some short sellers are closing or trimming. That frees up shares. Availability recovers — but because demand is being priced out, not because new supply entered the market.

Short interest as of July 1 stands at 8.1% of free float. That is roughly flat on the prior day, after a 17.5% weekly gain. The 30-day increase remains 32%. The ORTEX short score sits at 79.4 — still at its highest reading in the recent window, and ranked in the first percentile for short score intensity across all tracked names.

JP Morgan Cut Is the Analyst Backdrop

On June 16, JP Morgan's Kenneth Worthington maintained a Neutral rating but cut the price target from $43 to $26. That is a 40% reduction in the PT. The stock is now trading at $25.23 — essentially at JP Morgan's revised floor. The consensus target sits at $46.06, implying the sell-side as a whole sees significantly more upside than where the stock trades. That gap between the most pessimistic institutional PT and the current price is itself a signal: bears and bulls are far apart on fair value.

ARK and Fidelity Continue Building

Two institutional holders added materially in recent filings. ARK Investment Management added 1.74 million shares, bringing its stake to 6.56 million. FMR (Fidelity) added 1.83 million shares to reach 6.80 million. Both now sit among the five largest reported holders. The additions predate the recent price decline — but they represent active conviction bets from named managers, not passive index flow.

What Has Changed Since Yesterday

The previous note described availability at 2% with CTB still subdued. That has now inverted: availability has partially recovered to 11.4%, but CTB has exploded to 8.1%. The borrow market has moved from volume-driven exhaustion to price-driven rationing. Shorts still in the position are now paying materially more to stay in it. Next earnings are scheduled for August 13.

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• SI % of float: 8.1% (July 1), up 32% over 30 days
• Cost to borrow: 8.1%, up 561% week-on-week
• Availability: 11.4%, down ~50% week-on-week; 52-week low: 0.05%
• ORTEX short score: 79.4 (ranked 1st percentile)
• Price: $25.23, down 27.7% over one month
• JP Morgan PT: $26 (cut from $43 on June 16)
• Next earnings: August 13