SOC Borrow Cost Jumps 443% as Analyst Cuts Target to $15

Sable Offshore Corp. now faces pressure from every direction. The cost to borrow has exploded. Availability hit a new 52-week low. Short interest reached 23.4% of free float. And Roth Capital just slashed its price target by 32%.

Analyst Cuts to $15 — Stock Trades at $4.40

Roth Capital's Leo Mariani lowered his target from $22 to $15 on July 1. He maintained a Buy rating. That $15 target still represents more than a 240% premium to Tuesday's close of $4.40.

The gap between analyst conviction and market reality has never been wider for this stock. Roth had already been trimming its view — it stood at $37 in May 2025. Jefferies separately holds a Buy with a $24 target. The consensus mean sits at $18.

Both firms are holding ratings that were set before the 56% single-day collapse last week.

Borrow Cost Explodes

Cost to borrow stood at just 0.86% on June 26. It closed July 1 at 4.70%. That is a 443% jump in one week.

As recently as May, CTB was below 0.70%. The move reflects acute demand for borrows that can no longer be easily satisfied.

Availability has collapsed to 1.1% — the 52-week low. One week ago it was 78.5%. Three days ago it was 35.6%. Now it is effectively zero. For every 100 shares already borrowed, only about one share remains available to borrow.

Shorts Keep Adding Into the Lock-Up

Short interest rose to 23.4% of free float as of July 1. That is up 31.7% on the week and 38% on the month. Shorts added aggressively into the 56% crash — and they kept adding on the bounce.

With availability at 1.1%, those positions are now trapped. New shorts cannot easily open. Existing shorts face a borrow market that has functionally seized. The ORTEX short score of 75.6 places SOC in the 1st percentile of all stocks.

Days to cover stands at 5.86 based on the latest FINRA data, with 26.1 million shares short on official settlement figures.

Options Market Stays Stubbornly Bullish

The put/call ratio sits at 0.27 — 2.2 standard deviations below its 20-day mean. Call buying dominated even as the borrow market locked and the analyst cut arrived. This is the same PCR reading flagged in the prior convergence report. It has not reverted.

The structural tension is unchanged: options traders are buying calls; short sellers are trapped; the borrow market is frozen; and the analyst community is still formally bullish at prices far above current levels.

Data Summary

• Short interest: 23.4% of free float, +31.7% on the week
• Cost to borrow: 4.70%, up from 0.86% one week ago (+443%)
• Borrow availability: 1.1% — 52-week low
• Put/call ratio: 0.27, –2.2 standard deviations vs. 20-day mean
• ORTEX short score: 75.5 (1st percentile)
• Roth Capital target: cut to $15 from $22 (Buy maintained)
• Stock price: $4.40, +43% on July 1 rebound; –70% over one month
• Next earnings: August 12