TLT is deepening the same trend that defined last week: short sellers are steadily unwinding, the borrow market is extraordinarily loose, and the ORTEX short score is at its lowest point in over a month.
The short score tells the clearest story right now. It has fallen every single day this week, dropping from 60.6 on July 3 to 55.1 on July 9 — its lowest reading in the current data window. A score above 50 still signals net bearish positioning, but the direction of travel is unambiguously lower. That decay tracks directly with the ongoing unwinding of short positions: from a peak near 104 million shares in early June, short interest has pulled back to roughly 91 million, a decline of around 8.5% over the past month. At 16.3% of free float, TLT remains a heavily shorted instrument by any measure — but the bears are clearly trimming.
The borrow market has continued its dramatic loosening. Availability has climbed to 906% — meaning roughly nine shares sit idle in the lending pool for every one currently borrowed. That reading has more than doubled in a week alone, up from 386% at the end of June and a tight 148% in late June. Cost to borrow has also compressed, running near 0.36% this week versus above 0.54% in mid-June. Borrow conditions are close to the most frictionless they have been all year, which strips away one traditional catalyst for forced short covering. Options positioning is slightly more defensive than its recent average — the put/call ratio is running at 0.72, a little above the 20-day mean of 0.70 and about one standard deviation elevated — but the signal is mild and far from the 52-week high of 0.81.
The institutional picture offers some nuance on the two sides of this trade. Northwestern Mutual and Managed Account Advisors added shares in Q1, while Bank of America cut its position by nearly 25 million shares and Rafferty Asset Management — which runs leveraged and inverse Treasury products — trimmed by roughly 5.8 million. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley also reduced exposure materially. The Q1 flows reflect institutions repositioning around the same rate anxiety that drove the June short peak.
Meanwhile, TLT itself dipped 1.2% on the week to $84.47, continuing a modest grind lower despite the short position unwinding. The note from earlier this week observed that the analyst data on file is stale by many years and should not be treated as relevant. Monthly dividends around $0.30–$0.34 per share provide a steady carry return for long holders.
The key dynamic to watch is whether the short score stabilises or resumes its decline — and whether the extraordinary borrow availability begins to tighten again if new rate-bearish positioning emerges around any upcoming Federal Reserve communication.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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