BX reports Q2 results on July 17 with short sellers having added meaningful positions over the past month — yet the borrow market and options desk are telling a notably different story from the short-side tape.
The short interest build is real and worth tracking. Positions have risen 26% over the past 30 days to 3.1% of the free float, with the sharpest acceleration coming in the final week of June and again in early July. As flagged in the prior earnings preview note, the one-session jump around July 10 added roughly 3 million shares and pushed the short score modestly higher — it now runs at 38, up from 35.3 at the start of the month. That is a genuine shift in bearish conviction, not noise. The days-to-cover reading from FINRA's most recent fortnightly report is 3.7 days, a figure that would matter far more if borrow were constrained.
The borrow market, however, offers no squeeze mechanism. Availability has actually loosened further since the prior note, now running at roughly 2,032% of current short interest — meaning there are more than twenty shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. That is comfortably above even the 52-week low availability reading of 1,245%. Cost to borrow has fallen to 0.35%, down more than 20% on the week and nearly 30% over the month. Bears can add cheaply and exit without friction. The options picture has also settled: the put/call ratio at 1.46 is almost exactly in line with its 20-day average of 1.46, with a z-score near zero, suggesting neither unusual hedging demand nor fresh directional conviction from the options market.
The Street is broadly constructive but quietly dialling back its ambition. Multiple analysts trimmed targets ahead of the print. Evercore ISI cut from $145 to $140 on July 13, maintaining Outperform. RBC Capital dropped its target from $173 to $161 the same day, also holding Outperform. Citizens moved from $190 to $165 on July 9. The consensus mean price target of $140.80 implies roughly 13% upside from the current $124.56, but the direction of travel across the Street is lower — no firm moved a target up this week. Barclays, sitting at Equal-Weight with a $119 target, is the clearest bear among the named analysts. The bull case rests on Blackstone's scale, fundraising momentum in credit and insurance, and forward EPS growth — the stock ranks in the 79th percentile on 30-day EPS momentum and 75th on 12-month forward EPS growth year-on-year. The bear case centres on under-earning real estate fees, slower private wealth deployment, and the possibility that dry powder remains idle longer than expected.
The two prior earnings prints are a relevant data point for anyone sizing risk into Thursday. The April 23 Q1 release produced a 6.2% single-day decline, followed by a further softening to minus 3.2% over five days. The January 29 print fell 3% on the day and extended to minus 13.6% over the following week. Both reactions were negative. Neither was catastrophic for a stock of this size, but the pattern is consistent: the stock has not rallied on a print in the history available here.
Peer performance this week is broadly supportive of the sector. KKR rose 2.2%, OWL gained 2.4%, and CG added 3.3% — all broadly in line with BX's 3% weekly move. The group is moving together, which means Thursday's BX print will be read partly as a sector signal, not just a company-specific outcome. With short interest elevated, borrow loose, options neutral, and analysts trimming into the release, the setup is one where the positioning reflects caution rather than a crowded directional bet — and the key question for the print is whether management commentary on real estate fee recovery and private wealth deployment rates can shift that tone.
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