NEM heads into Wednesday's Q2 print having given back 17% in a month, yet options traders are leaning more bullish into the release than at any point in the past year.
The clearest contrarian signal is in the put/call ratio. It has dropped to 0.60 — the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks, running more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.64. That means calls are dominating options flow relative to recent norms, a sign that at least some market participants are positioning for a bounce rather than hedging against further downside. The stock closed at $89.70 on Thursday, down nearly 6% on the week, with the selloff broad-based across gold miners: close peers AEM, RGLD, and TSX-listed Barrick and Kinross all shed between 4% and 9% over the same period, suggesting macro pressure on the sector rather than NEM-specific deterioration.
The analyst community is still broadly constructive, but has been methodically walking down targets ahead of the print. Barclays trimmed to $125 from $133 on July 16 while keeping its Overweight. B of A cut hardest last week, slicing from $157 to $132. The consensus mean now rests near $133 — implying around 48% upside to current levels, a gap wide enough to reflect genuine disagreement about where the stock belongs. Bulls point to NEM's position as the world's largest gold producer, with roughly 5.3 million ounces guided for 2026 and a portfolio sharpened by the Newcrest acquisition and divestiture of higher-cost assets. Bears flag the lag in share performance relative to peers, integration execution risks, and a downside scenario anchored to long-run gold at $2,500/oz — well below current spot. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to roughly 5x over the past month, a level that already prices in meaningful skepticism.
Short sellers are not the story here. Short interest is running at just 1.8% of the free float — low by any measure — and the borrow market is among the most relaxed in the sector, with availability essentially unconstrained and cost to borrow below 0.5%. There is no squeeze setup, no crowded short position, and no pressure from the lending market in either direction. The ORTEX short score of 31 sits in the lower third of the universe, consistent with a stock that bears are largely ignoring.
The July 23 print is therefore a referendum on whether NEM can deliver operational metrics — costs, volumes, free cash flow — that justify the bull case at a time when the stock has already re-rated sharply lower despite gold prices holding near multi-year highs.
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