BX reports Q3 results on July 23 with a notable shift in the analyst narrative since the Q2 print six days ago — targets are coming down across the board, even as most firms hold their positive ratings.
The analyst direction has been uniformly negative in the run-up. Every major firm that moved in the past ten days cut its price target: Oppenheimer lowered to $139 from $156, JP Morgan trimmed to $132 from $136, Evercore ISI Group dropped to $140 from $145, and RBC Capital pulled back to $161 from $173. The average target now sits at $139.75, a roughly 10% premium to the current price of $126.91. That gap would ordinarily imply meaningful upside, but the direction of travel — targets consistently moving toward the stock, not away from it — suggests the Street is catching down to a new reality rather than reaffirming conviction. Bulls point to Blackstone's scale, diversification across private equity, real estate, and credit, and the growing resilience of private wealth channels through newer vehicles like BXPE and BXINFRA. Bears flag sequential fee pressure in credit and real estate, where elevated redemptions are capping near-term earnings growth despite strong fundraising numbers.
Short positioning has eased slightly from the elevated levels that dominated the prior two articles. Short interest dipped about 1.6% on the final session before close to 3.0% of the free float — a modest pullback from the multi-week highs seen around July 10-13, when the position climbed toward 3.3%. That is still up 14% on the week and 9% on the month, so the overall direction remains one of accumulating bearish interest. The borrow market continues to offer no amplifying mechanism: availability is running at more than 2,100% of current short interest, with over 407 million shares available to lend. Cost to borrow has actually fallen 17% over the past week to under 0.40%. This is a large, liquid name with plenty of room for shorts to enter or exit without stress.
Options positioning has become less defensive since the Q2 print. The put/call ratio is now 1.38, a touch below its 20-day average of 1.43 and just under one standard deviation below that mean. That is the least bearish options read in weeks — a contrast to the pre-Q2 posture, when the ratio was running near 1.47 to 1.56. The stock itself has recovered 3.1% over the past week to $126.91, retracing some of the 6.2% single-day drop that followed the April print, though it remains roughly flat on the month. Close peers KKR and ARES moved similarly on the week, up 4.1% and 3.2% respectively, suggesting the recovery is sector-wide rather than BX-specific.
The July 23 print will test whether Blackstone can show fee-related earnings stabilising — or whether the redemption drag and sequential pressure flagged by analysts is deeper than targets already reflect.
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