Three days before INFY reports on July 23, the cost to borrow its shares has doubled in a week. That's the sharpest escalation in the data since the borrow market first broke down in early June.
Cost to borrow hit 31.9% on July 17 — up 160% week-on-week and more than double the ~12% level that held through most of July. Availability sits at 0.05%. That is effectively zero: fewer than one share remains available for every 2,000 already out on loan.
Previous articles here covered the structural tightness in the borrow pool — availability has been near-zero repeatedly since early June. What's changed is the cost. At 12% for most of July, shorts were paying a significant but manageable rate. At 31.9%, the daily carry on a large short position has become punishing.
Short interest has continued to climb. It reached 203.3 million shares as of July 17 — up 14.4% in a week and 25.8% over the past month. Demand for borrows is still rising even as availability has collapsed and the cost has surged. That's an unusual combination. New shorts are paying a steep premium to open positions in one of the tightest lending markets in the stock's recent history.
The ORTEX short score stands at 75.7, near its recent peak.
Against that bearish backdrop, options traders are moving the other way. The put/call ratio fell to 2.47 — nearly 2.7 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 3.26. That's the lowest PCR reading in 52 weeks.
In absolute terms a PCR above 2 still reflects more put volume than calls. But the direction is stark. Traders who spent the past month stacking downside protection are pulling back hard, right before the print.
The two signals — a surging borrow cost and collapsing PCR — point in opposite directions. That's the core tension heading into Wednesday.
Analyst cuts have continued. Stifel lowered its target from $15 to $13 on July 16. Susquehanna cut from $14 to $12 on July 10. TD Cowen cut from $13 to $10 on July 9. The consensus mean target is $13.27 against a current price of $11.49 — a gap that reflects more uncertainty than conviction. JP Morgan, which maintained Overweight, slashed its target from $16.80 to $12.70 in late June.
Prior earnings reactions offer context without comfort. April's print brought a 4.6% one-day drop and a 7.6% five-day decline. The June quarter saw a 1.5% bounce but then gave back 2.6% over five days.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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