Nasdaq, Inc. heads into its July 23 earnings release with the stock meaningfully stronger than it was a week ago and options traders positioned more bullishly than usual — a shift in tone from the cautious setup described in coverage earlier this month.
The most notable development since the prior note is the price action itself. NDAQ has climbed 12% over the past month to $91.87, including a 3% gain on the week. That rally has moved the stock materially closer to analyst targets, which cluster around $106–$113. Options traders have taken note: the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.80, more than 1.6 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.91. That is one of the more call-heavy readings of the past year, suggesting the options market is tilting toward upside participation rather than downside protection ahead of the print. TD Cowen's Bill Katz raised his target to $105 from $101 on Monday, keeping a Buy, adding a fresh bullish data point within 24 hours of the report.
Short interest reinforces the lack of conviction among bears. At 1.6% of the free float, it remains low in absolute terms — though it has risen roughly 33% over the past month, climbing from around 7 million shares to just over 9.4 million. That build is worth watching, but with borrow availability essentially unconstrained and cost to borrow running at a negligible 0.43%, there is no sign of a crowded short trade or meaningful squeeze pressure. The lending market for NDAQ is about as loose as it gets.
The bull-versus-bear debate heading into the print remains structurally unchanged from a week ago, but the stock's rally has sharpened the stakes. Bulls point to 14% year-over-year growth in Market Services revenue, a 25% jump in Financial Crime Management Technology, and the long-term optionality in Nasdaq's Adenza-enhanced technology platform. Bears flag a projected 10% decline in FY26 EPS, persistent softness in IPO volumes, and the residual integration risk that continues to cloud near-term earnings visibility. Morgan Stanley and Barclays trimmed targets earlier in July while holding positive ratings — a sign the Street still sees upside but wants execution proof before fully committing. The consensus mean near $107 implies roughly 16% upside from current levels, a narrower gap than the 21% noted in the prior note simply because the stock has run.
The July 23 print will test whether the revenue momentum in Nasdaq's technology and data segments is durable enough to offset the EPS headwinds that have kept target reductions in motion — and whether the recent rally has already priced in the answer.
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