Two forces are pulling in opposite directions on MUFG. Short sellers are scrambling to hold existing positions as the borrow market dries up. Options traders, meanwhile, have never been more bullish on the stock. That tension is the story right now at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
Availability has collapsed. One week ago, roughly 31% of borrowed shares still had a lending match available. Today that figure stands at just 8%. That is a drop of 84% in seven days.
For context, the 52-week low on availability is 0.29%. MUFG is not there yet — but the direction is unmistakable. At 8%, there are fewer than nine shares available for every hundred already lent out. That is a very tight lending market for a large Japanese megabank ADR.
Cost to borrow has responded accordingly. CTB hit 1.08% on July 21 — up 54% in a single week and 27% over the past month. For a diversified bank of MUFG's size, that rate of change is notable even if the absolute level remains modest.
Earnings are nine days away, on July 31. The timing matters. Short sellers seeking to establish or maintain positions are facing a shrinking window and a rising cost to do so.
The put-call ratio on July 21 landed at 0.07 — the lowest on record. The 20-day average is 0.63. That gap represents nearly three standard deviations of deviation from the norm.
To put it plainly: options traders have almost entirely abandoned protective puts. For every put contract placed, roughly 14 call contracts were opened. That is an unusually lopsided expression of bullish conviction.
The stock added 3.3% on July 21 alone. The 1-month gain now stands at around 5%.
Major holders have been building, not trimming. JP Morgan Asset Management added nearly 4.9 million shares in its most recent filing. FMR (Fidelity) added 3.3 million. Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management added 3.9 million. BlackRock added 2.1 million.
None of these moves are dramatic in isolation. Combined, they reflect a consistent direction among large institutional holders — leaning in rather than reducing exposure.
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