XPeng heads into its August 27 earnings with the borrow market continuing to ease — but the more interesting shift this week is in options, where traders have swung firmly to the call side.
The options story has flipped since the previous note. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.33, its lowest reading of the past year and more than a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.36. That's a notable rotation: six weeks ago the PCR ran above 0.48, reflecting meaningful demand for downside protection. Now calls dominate the options flow by a wide margin. Whether that reflects genuine bullish conviction or short-dated positioning ahead of August earnings is hard to disentangle, but the direction is clear — options traders are leaning long, not hedging.
The borrow picture has continued to evolve since the July 15 note flagged a loosening. Availability has climbed further to roughly 36%, up from the 31–32% range seen early this week and well above the near-zero readings that characterised June. The 52-week low was 0.27%; the current level, while still tight relative to normal markets, marks the most breathing room shorts have had in months. Cost to borrow ticked up about 20% on the week to 1.14% — a mild reversal after several weeks of compression — though that remains low in absolute terms. Short shares outstanding have edged down again, now around 52.3 million, off roughly 1.2% on the week and about 4% from the early-July peak above 54.5 million. Taken together, the picture is one of gradual short covering rather than a renewed press: fewer shares short, more availability, modest borrow costs.
The Street remains split, but the most recent action tilted negative. Barclays trimmed its target to $15 from $16 on July 16, keeping its Underweight rating — the third time in recent months the firm has nudged the target lower while staying bearish. That $15 target sits just 13% above the current price of $13.33, leaving little room in the bear case. Macquarie takes the other view, having upgraded to Outperform in May with a $19 target. The mean analyst target of around $19–25 from more constructive names implies meaningful upside at current levels, but those targets sit well above where Barclays sees fair value. The ORTEX short score has eased slightly to 69.4 from 70.1 a week ago — still elevated, ranking in the 5th percentile for short pressure across the universe. EPS surprise is a genuine positive, ranking in the 97th percentile, and 30-day EPS momentum has hit the top of the universe at the 100th percentile. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed around 6.5 turns over the past month to 38x, reflecting some re-rating lower.
Goldman Sachs added 3.8 million shares through early June and BlackRock added over a million through June 30, both moving in the constructive direction. Founder Xiaopeng He remains the dominant holder at 18.8% of shares. The combination of institutional buying from large passive and active names alongside a still-elevated short base creates the structural tension that has defined XPEV positioning for months.
The earnings history offers limited guidance — the May print produced a flat one-day move but a 2.2% five-day drift higher, while February's result saw a 4.4% drop on the day followed by a 6% recovery over five days. August 27 is the date to watch: the question then will be whether delivery volumes and margin trajectory have improved enough to resolve the bull-bear standoff that the options and borrow data are currently reflecting in opposite directions.
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