XPEV heads into its August 27 print carrying a fresh 9% loss while every major peer closes the week in the green — a divergence that sharpens the question the earnings report must answer.
The price action is the standout heading into Thursday. XPEV dropped 8.5% on Monday alone and is now down roughly 9% on the week, trading at $11.15. That move happened while NIO gained 2.4% on the week, LI rose 6.4%, and TSLA added 6%. The isolation of the sell-off — XPEV underperforming its closest peers by six to fifteen percentage points in a single week — suggests stock-specific pressure rather than sector rotation. A prior ORTEX preview published August 21 noted bullish options positioning and a tight lending market; the stock has since shed another 8.5%, erasing the remaining recovery from the August 24 earnings event and resetting the tape at a new near-term low.
Options traders have not capitulated to the bearish price action. The put/call ratio edged up to 0.32, still well below its 20-day average of 0.34 and holding near the 52-week low of 0.30 touched earlier this month. That means call volume continues to dominate puts — a notably resilient positioning given the week's losses. Meanwhile, borrow availability has loosened modestly to 38%, up from around 32% a week ago, and cost to borrow is a low 1.03%. Short interest has also fallen — down 24% over the past month to roughly 40 million shares — suggesting short sellers have been covering rather than pressing the recent weakness. The lending market is tight relative to historical norms but not in squeeze territory.
The analyst debate captures the stock's wider tug-of-war. Barclays, the most recently active bellwether, trimmed its target to $15 in mid-July while holding an Underweight rating — the note has fresh relevance given the stock now trades at $11.15, uncomfortably close to that floor. Macquarie upgraded to Outperform in late May at a $19 target. The consensus mean target on record is substantially higher, but the data reflects a wide dispersion of views rather than a coherent directional call. Valuation context is mixed: EV/EBITDA has compressed roughly 10% over the past month to around 30x, and the PE ratio sits near 121x on thin earnings. The factor-score picture reinforces the caution — the short score ranks in the 8th percentile of its universe, and EPS momentum over the past 90 days ranks in the 2nd percentile, though EPS surprise history ranks in the 98th percentile, meaning the company has a strong track record of beating estimates even when sentiment is poor.
Thursday's print is therefore less a test of whether XPeng is growing and more a question of whether it can deliver a delivery or margin beat compelling enough to explain why the stock fell when its peers rose.
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