Popular, Inc. heads into its Q2 print today with options positioning at its most bullish extreme of the past year.
The clearest signal comes from the options market. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.07 — the lowest reading in 52 weeks, nearly two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.15. That is not cautious hedging; it reflects concentrated call-side demand, with traders paying up for upside exposure rather than downside protection. The stock closed at $170.88, down about 1.7% on the day and roughly flat on the week, giving back some of the 5% gain accumulated over the past month. Peers including KEY and COLB also dipped on the session, so the softness looks sector-wide rather than BPOP-specific.
The analyst community's posture reinforces that bullish tilt. Since early July, Benchmark initiated with a Buy and a $201 target, and Truist raised its target from $172 to $192 — both firms flagging strengthening net interest income and accelerating loan growth as the key drivers. Barclays and Wells Fargo lifted targets earlier in the month. The consensus mean now runs near $190, roughly 11% above the current price. EPS factor scores back the optimism: Popular ranks in the 88th percentile on earnings surprise history and the 90th on 90-day EPS momentum, meaning the company has been consistently beating and revisions have been moving higher. The bear case remains the same structural concern it has been — Popular is deeply tied to the Puerto Rico economic cycle, and any deterioration in the island's outlook would flow quickly into credit estimates.
Short interest, at 3.2% of the float, has climbed about 18% over the past month but remains well short of anything that changes the story. Borrow conditions are loose — availability is running near 5,150%, meaning shares to lend dwarf what is actually borrowed — and the cost to borrow is only 0.35%. There is no squeeze pressure here, and the rise in short interest reads more like routine pre-earnings hedging than a conviction bearish build.
The print will test whether Popular's net interest income trajectory and Puerto Rico credit quality can substantiate the broad, unanimous analyst re-rating that has pushed targets well above where the stock currently trades.
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