Earnings Avalanche Meets Oil Shock and Short Squeeze Risk

Oil Dominates the Macro Picture

Crude oil is the biggest story across markets today. Brent crossed $100 per barrel as Middle East tensions intensify. Houthi attacks are threatening Saudi Arabia's oil exports. US refineries are running at near-maximum capacity. Bond markets sold off sharply on inflation fears. The move above $100 resets rate expectations and puts pressure on central banks globally. Energy stocks stand to benefit. Everything else faces a headwind.

Earnings Season Hits Peak Week

This week is the busiest of the reporting season. American Express, Verizon, and SLB report today. Monday brings Coca-Cola, UPS, and Royal Caribbean. Then Microsoft and Meta Platforms headline a monster Tuesday. Analysts raised their target on Intel to $110.60 ahead of its results. They cut Rollins by over 9% to $50.24. PayPal faces scrutiny on margin recovery and competition.

Short Sellers Hold Extreme Positions

Hertz Global short interest hit 73.6% of free float. Zero shares remain available to borrow. Wolfspeed sits at 79.7% despite a 162% price rally over three months. Bears are not retreating. NETSTREIT enters earnings day with 41% of its float shorted and borrow fully locked. Eastern Bankshares saw its short interest double heading into its earnings report today.

Europe: Defense Rallies, Insiders Buy

European defense stocks rallied after Ukraine ratified a $105 billion EU loan deal. In Sweden, Industrivärden and Deputy Chairman Lars Lundberg filed a combined $93M buying cluster in Handelsbanken. That is the largest European insider buy of the week and stands out against the backdrop of VC selling in US tech names.