SPCX: The Borrow Pool Is Almost Gone

SPCX availability has hit 4.4% — the tightest level since listing. Bears keep adding. The pool has nearly run dry.

One Share Left for Every Twenty-Two Borrowed

Two weeks ago, availability stood at 28%. Last week it was 7.6%. Today it is 4.4%.

That is not a trend. That is a wall approaching at speed.

The compression from 628% on June 16 to 4.4% today took five weeks. The final leg — from 28% to 4.4% — took seven trading days. The pace of tightening is accelerating as the short base grows larger.

Cost to borrow hit 3.21% on July 23, up 55% in one week and up 265% over the past month. In mid-June the rate was below 1%. The direction has not reversed once.

Bears Are Still Adding Into a Near-Shut Market

Shares short reached 202.6 million as of July 23. That is up 19% on the week. The short base has grown every single session since July 10, when it stood at 161 million.

The ORTEX short score sits at 68.7 — its highest reading since listing, and up from 50.6 ten days ago.

There is still no sign of covering. The short base has now expanded for two straight weeks against a progressively tighter borrow market. Shorts are paying more to maintain their positions. They have not blinked.

Analysts See a Different Stock

The consensus target sits at $231. The stock trades at $118. HSBC initiated today at Hold with a $115 target — nearly in line with the current price and sharply below the rest of the Street.

Macquarie held its $250 Outperform on July 21. Piper Sandler started at Neutral with a $156 target on July 16. Needham raised its Buy target to $250 on July 15. Evercore, Deutsche Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, and RBC all initiated with Outperform or Buy ratings above $220 earlier this month.

The analyst community is overwhelmingly constructive. The borrow market disagrees.

What to Watch

Earnings are scheduled for August 6. Availability at 4.4% with a growing short base means the cost of holding a short position will keep rising. The question is whether shorts begin covering before that date — or whether the squeeze conditions build further into the print.

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Data summary

• Shares short: 202.6M (Jul 23), up 19% on the week
• Borrow availability: 4.4% — record low since listing
• Cost to borrow: 3.21%, up 55% week-on-week, up 265% month-on-month
• ORTEX short score: 68.7 (record high)
• Analyst consensus target: $231 vs. current price $118
• Next earnings: August 6