CNH Options Flash Bullish as Short Sellers Stay Cautious

CNH Industrial heads into its July 29 earnings report with options traders taking an unusually bullish stance — the most pronounced call-heavy tilt in nearly a year.

The clearest positioning signal is in options. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.19 on July 24, almost three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.33. That is close to the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks — a level only briefly touched once before — and it arrived on the same day the stock gained 5% to close at $11.15. The move extends a strong run: CNH is up nearly 12% over the past month. Closely correlated peers AGCO and DE also rose about 3-5% on the day, confirming a sector tailwind, but CNH's options skew is distinctly more bullish than the group.

Short interest tells a less aggressive story than the bullish options flow might suggest. Bears hold about 6.1% of the free float short — meaningful, but not extreme — and that position has barely moved on the week, slipping just 0.3%. The monthly picture is more notable: short interest has climbed roughly 20% over the past 30 days, adding roughly 12 million shares to the short book since mid-June. Borrow conditions, however, remain easy. Availability is comfortable at 353%, meaning there are more than three shares available to lend for every share currently borrowed, and the cost to borrow is just 0.58% — low by any measure, despite edging up 20% on the week. There is no squeeze pressure visible in the lending market.

The fundamental debate is genuinely split. Bears point to a difficult agricultural backdrop: CNH's own guidance for adjusted EPS came in below analyst estimates, de-stocking continues across the dealer network, and the agricultural EBIT was flagged as potentially near break-even in early 2026. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral back in May, cutting its target to $10.50. JP Morgan, maintaining an Underweight, raised its target only to $10.00 as recently as July 13 — still well below the current price of $11.15. Bulls, meanwhile, argue that the efficiency-and-margins story embedded in CNH's 2030 plan is underappreciated. The company's EPS surprise factor ranks in the 87th percentile, a sign it has repeatedly cleared a low bar set by cautious consensus. The mean analyst price target of $13.28 implies meaningful upside from current levels, even accounting for the more bearish floor targets. Citigroup and Barclays both hold constructive ratings with targets above $12.

One institutional footnote is worth noting: Franklin Resources added more than 21 million shares through May, and BNY Asset Management added over 13 million through June — two sizable new or expanded positions that signal some conviction buyers were stepping in even as the stock traded closer to $10.

The July 29 print will test whether CNH's Q2 beat momentum — flagged in recent commentary as revenue and net income both surpassing consensus — can hold up against still-cautious guidance language and whether agricultural margins are stabilising fast enough to justify the stock's 12% re-rating this month.