An Evercore ISI upgrade with a 44% implied upside has crystallised into something broader. Three distinct signals — analyst, options, and short interest — are all pointing the same direction on CNH Industrial simultaneously.
Evercore ISI analyst David Raso upgraded CNH to Outperform on September 3. He raised his price target to $18 from $12.50. The stock was trading at $13.65 at the time — implying 44% upside to his new target.
This is a meaningful change of view. Raso had previously held an In-Line rating. He'd nudged the target up to $12.50 from $12.25 in August. The September move to $18 is a step-change, not a trim.
The broader analyst picture remains mixed. DA Davidson holds Neutral at $12. JP Morgan remains Underweight with a $10 target. But the consensus sits at Buy, with 9 buys against 6 holds.
Bulls point to an anticipated agricultural cycle recovery and CNH's strong global dealer network. Bears flag supply chain risk, FX headwinds, and uncertainty in Brazilian markets.
The options market has swung sharply bullish. The put-call ratio fell to 0.34 on September 3. That compares to a 20-day average of 0.36. The z-score hit -2.80 — nearly three standard deviations below the mean. That is the lowest reading since late July.
For context: a low PCR signals traders are buying calls relative to puts. The 52-week range runs from 0.06 to 0.40. At 0.34, the ratio sits near the bearish end of that range — meaning options flow is tilted heavily toward calls.
Short interest has fallen sharply. SI stood at 3.97% of free float as of September 2 — down 18.3% in one week and down 34% over the past month. That pace of decline, coinciding with a 21% weekly price move, is consistent with short covering accelerating a squeeze.
The borrow market reflects the lighter positioning. Availability sits at 686% — nearly seven shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. That is well above the 52-week trough of 266%. Cost to borrow has also eased, falling to 0.37% from 0.46% a week ago. No stress in the lending market.
Several major holders added shares in recent months. Franklin Templeton added 6.4 million shares in the period to July 31. Brandes Investment Partners added 19.2 million shares through June. Barrow Hanley added 14.2 million. These are not passive flow adjustments — they are conviction adds from active managers.
The ORTEX short score has also moved: from 54 on August 24 down to 40.9 by September 2. A falling short score reflects improving conditions for longs, not shorts.
What to watch: Whether the Evercore target of $18 draws further upgrades from the six analysts still sitting on Hold — and whether the agricultural cycle data due before the next earnings print (scheduled for November 6) corroborates Raso's revised thesis.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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