Big Tech Earnings, Oil at $100, and a Tale of Two Trades

Macro: Oil Crosses $100

Brent crude pushed back above $100 a barrel. That is now the dominant macro force in markets. Bond yields are rising in response. Inflation expectations are being reset globally. The move is lifting energy stocks. Devon Energy and Marathon Petroleum — up 90% year-to-date — are drawing heavy bullish options flow. Traders are chasing further upside, not just hedging.

US: Earnings Week Heats Up

Microsoft reports fiscal Q4 2026 results Wednesday after the close. It is the week's most-watched event. AI sentiment hangs on what management says about cloud and Copilot demand. S&P Global reports Tuesday. Celestica and Cadence Design Systems go Sunday. The earnings slate is heavy and broad.

Analysts are turning bullish on rails. Citi upgraded Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, and CSX on the same day. Options traders agree — UNP tops the S&P 500 for bullish flow, with RSI at 72.8 and the stock up 33% year-to-date.

Short Interest: HTZ Bears Hold Firm

Hertz remains the market's most crowded short. SI % of FF stands at 75%. Zero shares are available to borrow. Heavy put interest confirms bears are not flinching. Columbia Financial saw the biggest weekly jump — short interest surged 22 points to 27.6% of float. Meanwhile, shorts are retreating from Palantir ahead of earnings, where SI sits at just 3.9%.

Insider Watch: $267M in Sales

Sellers dominated filings today. Silver Lake Group sold $228 million in Dell shares. Dell also drew analyst target upgrades and bullish options — a split signal worth watching.