ArcelorMittal reports second-quarter results on July 30 against an unusually sharp shift in the lending market — one that has cut borrow availability in half in a single week.
The standout signal heading into the print is how quickly the lending pool has tightened. Availability has collapsed from around 130% two weeks ago to just 38% now, nearly its lowest level of the past year — the 52-week floor is 36.7%. That move means the ratio of shares still available to borrow relative to shares already out on loan has more than halved in a fortnight. The cost to borrow remains low in absolute terms at just under 1%, but it has climbed roughly 19% over the past month. Taken together, borrow demand is clearly rising even as the stock grinds higher — MT has added 5.7% over the past month and closed Friday at $66.88.
Options positioning is telling a calmer story than the lending market. The put/call ratio is running slightly below its 20-day average at 0.75, about 0.8 standard deviations on the call-leaning side, and well off the defensive extreme of 1.14 seen at its 52-week high. That suggests options traders are not loading up on downside protection ahead of the release, even as short sellers appear to be building positions. The short score has edged up from around 47 to 50 over the past two weeks — broadly neutral territory — so the squeeze pressure implied by tightening borrow has not yet shown up in the short score itself.
The analyst picture has shifted more constructively into the print. JP Morgan upgraded MT to Neutral from Underweight on July 10 — reversing a March downgrade — while Wells Fargo has raised its target four times since January, most recently to $62. Jefferies went further in February, upgrading to Buy with a $73.20 target. At $66.88, MT already trades above the Wells Fargo target, which is worth noting. Bulls point to a cheap valuation — the stock trades at roughly 0.84 times book and 11 times trailing earnings, with EV/EBITDA near 6.5x — and strong earnings momentum: the EPS surprise factor ranks in the 82nd percentile and 90-day EPS momentum sits in the 79th. Bears counter with a genuinely weak fundamental backdrop: a recent note flags soft global steel demand, margin pressure from oversupply, and a 12-month forward EPS trajectory that remains deeply negative year-on-year. The analyst recommendation divergence factor is in the 94th percentile — an unusually wide gap between the bull and bear camps.
Historical reactions have leaned positive. After Q1 results reported April 30, the stock gained 1.7% on the day and followed through to a 9.3% rise over the five sessions that followed. The February 5 print produced an even stronger outcome: a 9.5% single-day move and a 10% five-day gain. The July 30 report will test whether the steel giant can deliver evidence that demand is stabilising — and whether a valuation that already looks cheap can absorb another round of margin disappointment if it cannot.
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