Oppenheimer Heads Into Q2 Print on a 51% YTD Run

Oppenheimer Holdings heads into its July 31 Q2 earnings report riding one of the strongest runs in its sector, with the stock up 51.7% year-to-date and 6.4% over the past month to $111.85.

The stock's momentum story is the real headline here. The ORTEX stock score recently hit a six-month high above 94, driven almost entirely by momentum — the 50-day moving average sits 22% above the 200-day, and relative strength has expanded across every major lookback window. OPY is trading near its 52-week high, and that strength has come with no meaningful squeeze pressure from short sellers: the borrow market is essentially wide open, with availability running at the ceiling of the data range and cost to borrow at just 0.56%, down sharply on the week. Short interest in absolute share terms has risen roughly 68% over the past month, but the raw count remains tiny — well under 1% of the float — and days to cover of just one day means there is no structural threat from the short side.

Options positioning has shifted modestly more defensive into the print. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.14, above its 20-day average of 0.08 — about 1.1 standard deviations elevated. That is not an alarm signal, but it marks a clear shift from the near-zero put demand seen through mid-July, when the ratio briefly touched 0.03. The move suggests some traders are hedging their gains ahead of the release, rather than adding fresh upside exposure. Notably, SF rose 9% on the week and LPLA gained 4%, while most of OPY's other correlated peers — MS, NTRS, STT — gave back 1–2%. OPY's 1.2% weekly gain sits in the middle of a bifurcated group.

Ownership is tightly concentrated, which amplifies the stakes of the print. CEO Albert Lowenthal controls roughly 32.5% of shares, and the broader Lowenthal and Propp family holdings push insider-aligned ownership well above 40%. That structure means quarterly results land in a stock with limited float and a management team whose net worth is directly on the line. Historical earnings reactions have been uneven: the most recent print in May produced a one-day gain of just over 2%, but two earlier events in 2026 saw the stock drop 7% and 14% on the day respectively.

The July 31 print will therefore test whether OPY's exceptional year-to-date momentum reflects a sustained improvement in capital markets activity — particularly in advisory and underwriting revenue — or whether some of the run has simply borrowed from future quarters in a buoyant macro environment.