O-I Glass reports Q2 results on July 29 with short sellers notably more aggressive than they were just a week ago, even as options traders lean in the opposite direction.
The short interest surge is the clearest signal heading into the print. Shorts jumped 22% over the past week to nearly 10.7 million shares — now representing just under 7% of the free float, up from around 6% a month ago. The move is concentrated and recent: the history shows shares short held relatively flat through most of June and early July before spiking sharply between July 23 and 24. Despite the increased positioning, the borrow market remains wide open. Availability is running at over 1,000% — meaning roughly ten shares are available for every one currently borrowed — and cost to borrow is a negligible 0.43%. The lending conditions give bears room to add further with no squeeze pressure in sight. The ORTEX short score has ticked up to 45.7, its highest reading in the recent window, consistent with the directional build.
Options positioning contradicts the short side, however. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.076 — the lowest reading of the past year, and nearly one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.098. Far more call activity than put activity heading into the print suggests at least part of the market is positioned for an upside surprise. The stock closed at $9.06, down 1.5% on the day before earnings but up 2% on the week, while most packaging peers — , , — posted stronger weekly gains of 3–5%, leaving OI as a relative laggard in the group.
The bull and bear cases are well-defined. Bulls point to the 4.4% volume growth O-I delivered in Q1 — the first positive demand signal after a prolonged destocking cycle — with management guiding for a further 5% increase. Bears focus on April softness in European markets, where wine and spirits exports account for a large share of output, and on the persistent risk of losing share to alternative packaging substrates. Analysts are broadly constructive but have been trimming targets consistently: Truist and Wells Fargo both cut to $13 and $12 respectively earlier in July, while RBC lowered its target to $11. The consensus mean is now $11.79, implying roughly 30% upside from the current price — a gap that reflects uncertainty rather than conviction. At a P/E of around 5.9x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, valuation is undemanding, but the stock has fallen nearly 7% over the past month, signaling the market wants proof before re-rating. An insider cluster of open-market buys in May — including the CFO and Chief Administration Officer — added a modest positive signal, though the amounts were small.
The Q2 print is less about whether the volume recovery is intact and more about whether European demand trends have stabilised enough to justify the Street's still-positive ratings despite a months-long string of target cuts.
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