O-I Glass has now reported Q2 results, and the positioning divergence that defined the pre-earnings setup — shorts piling in while options traders bet the other way — is the right lens for reading where the stock goes from here.
The short build that drove the pre-print note has stalled. Short interest peaked at roughly 10.7 million shares in the days before the July 29 release and has essentially flatlined, holding at 6.9% of the free float. That 22% weekly surge into earnings has not continued post-print, which matters: the bears who built positions quickly did not keep adding once the results were out. More telling, the borrow market is now extraordinarily loose. Availability has more than doubled in a week — from roughly 1,000% to over 2,100% — meaning there are now more than twenty shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted. Cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.44%, down around 8% on the week. The lending conditions look more like a stock nobody is urgently trying to short than one under active bear attack. The ORTEX short score has drifted back to 43.8, retreating from the 45.7 peak hit the day before results.
Options traders, who were already the contrarian voice pre-earnings, have doubled down. The put/call ratio has fallen further to 0.076 — the lowest print of the past 52 weeks, and now almost exactly one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.098. Call volume is dominating a market where the 52-week high on the PCR was 0.58. That is a stark gap. Taken together, the positioning picture is one where the pre-earnings shorts are sitting on underwater or flat positions while call buyers are still leaning into an upside scenario — a setup that looks more constructive than the raw SI number alone would suggest.
The Street's view is cautious but not bearish. Analysts carrying Buy and Overweight ratings — Truist, Wells Fargo, RBC Capital, and UBS — all trimmed targets in the weeks before the print, reflecting the stock's persistent drift lower. The mean target now sits at $11.79 against a close of $9.06, implying about 30% upside. Citi's analyst holds at Neutral with a $10 target, sitting just above the current price. Valuation offers some support: the stock trades at under 5x EV/EBITDA and 5.8x earnings, with a price-to-book below 1x — the EV/EBIT factor ranks in the 70th percentile of the universe. The bull case rests on 4-5% volume growth continuing after the destocking cycle ended; the bear case centres on European softness, competition from alternative substrates, and execution risk on the MAGMA production process. Factor scores are weak on earnings surprise (2nd percentile) and analyst recommendation diffusion (1st percentile), flagging that the Street's optimism has not been validated by recent beats.
Institutional holders are largely stable, with BlackRock at 14.6% the dominant position. The more interesting recent ownership signal is Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which added nearly 2.9 million shares in the quarter to June 30 — a meaningful build for a mid-sized name. On the insider side, a cluster of executives bought shares around the $8.50–$9.30 range in May, including the CFO and the Chief Administration Officer. Those purchases now look slightly underwater given the stock closed Tuesday at $9.06, down 1.5% on the day despite closing 2% higher on the week.
Peers in the packaging complex had a stronger session. AMBP rose 7.6% Tuesday and is up 11% on the week. BALL, AMCR, and AVY all gained 3-4% on the day and 7-9% on the week. OI's 2% weekly gain leaves it lagging the broader packaging rally, which makes the Q2 print and any updated volume guidance the focal point for whether that gap closes or widens through the rest of the week.
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