CSTM Options Bulls and Short Sellers Collide Ahead of Earnings

Options traders are betting bullishly on CSTM heading into today's earnings. The put-call ratio has dropped to 0.38 — a 2-year low. That's 2.6 standard deviations below its 20-day mean, a statistically extreme lean toward calls.

Yet short sellers have been moving in the opposite direction all week.

Bulls Own the Options Desk

The PCR 52-week range runs from 0.14 to 1.39. At 0.38, today's reading sits toward the lower end — but not at an absolute extreme. What makes it notable is the speed. The ratio has fallen from 0.46 just ten days ago, a consistent drift that accelerated this week as earnings approached.

Call open interest is dominating. Options traders, on balance, are positioned for an upside print.

Short Sellers Pushed Back In

SI climbed 15% over the past week to 4.8% of free float. That's roughly 6.6 million shares short. The one-month rise is also meaningful — up 10%.

Cost to borrow more than doubled. It sat at 0.48% seven days ago. It now stands at 1.07%. That jump is significant in percentage terms, though the absolute level remains modest.

Availability remains exceptionally loose at 9,293% — roughly 81 million shares still available to borrow. There is no structural squeeze risk here. The CTB move reflects increased demand, not a depleted lending pool.

The short score ticked up to 39.1 this week, from 36.8 the week prior. It's a modest move, but directionally consistent with the rise in short positions.

Analysts Trimmed Targets, Kept the Faith

Wells Fargo and UBS both lowered price targets in early July — Wells Fargo to $37, UBS to $35. Both maintained positive ratings. The consensus mean target stands at $32.56, above the current price of $29.08. That implies roughly 12% upside from here.

JP Morgan downgraded to Neutral in late April. That remains the only negative signal from sell-side coverage in recent months.

Data Summary

• SI % of free float: 4.8%, up 15% in one week
• Cost to borrow: 1.07%, up from 0.48% a week ago (+122%)
• Availability: 9,293% — lending market remains very loose
• Put-call ratio: 0.38, a 2-year low; z-score –2.6
• Earnings: Today, 13:30 UTC
• Price: $29.08, down 8.5% over the past month
• Analyst consensus: Buy-leaning; mean target $32.56

Two distinct groups are placing their bets ahead of the print. Options traders are leaning heavily toward calls. Short sellers added exposure this week. One of them will be right by end of day.