TRS Bulls Load Up Options as Short Sellers Exit Before Earnings

Three distinct signals are converging on TRS today. Earnings drop this afternoon. Options traders, short sellers, and the lending market are all moving in the same direction.

Options Market Turns Sharply Bullish

The put-call ratio hit 0.075 yesterday. That's 2.85 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.028. In plain terms: call volume is overwhelming put volume. Traders are positioning for an upside move, not protection against a drop.

The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.0012 to 1.49. At 0.075, today's reading sits well toward the bullish extreme.

Short Sellers Are Covering

SI stood at 8.15% of free float as of July 29. That's down 12% in a week — from roughly 3.77 million shares short to 3.31 million. Over the past month, SI has fallen 27.6%.

The covering accelerated as earnings approached. It's the sharpest weekly decline in at least six weeks.

Corroborating Context

The borrow market remains loose. Availability sits at 652% — roughly 26.7 million shares still available to lend against 3.3 million already borrowed. There's no squeeze pressure here. Short sellers covering are doing so by choice, not because borrowing became painful.

Cost to borrow rose 78% in a week to 0.52%. That sounds dramatic, but the absolute level remains historically low. It reflects increased borrow demand as positions were closed, not a tightening lending market.

The ORTEX short score sits at 59.3, down from 61.2 a week ago. That move tracks the covering activity.

Factor scores add another bullish data point. The EPS surprise rank scores at the 100th percentile — the top of the range. Analysts at BWS Financial and Keybanc both carry Buy/Overweight ratings, with a mean price target of $45 against a current price of $39.33. That implies roughly 14% upside to consensus.

What to Watch

The last two earnings prints produced single-day moves of +6.8% and +4.3%. The prior quarter saw a one-day drop of 3%. Options positioning today skews heavily toward a repeat of the positive outcomes. The key number to watch is whether the packaging segment maintains the momentum flagged after Q4.

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• SI % of FF: 8.15% (down from 10.7% one week ago)
• SI 1-month change: −27.6%
• Put-call ratio: 0.075 (z-score: +2.85)
• Cost to borrow: 0.52% (+78% week-on-week)
• Availability: 652% — lending market loose
• Analyst mean target: $45.00 vs. price $39.33
• Earnings: today, 14:00 UTC