RBA Bears Press Their Case as Options Sentiment Holds Firm

RB Global arrives at its August 3 earnings print with short sellers at their most aggressive in over a month — even as options traders remain stubbornly bullish.

The short interest picture has changed materially since the last article published July 22. At that point, SI had climbed to roughly 6.5% of free float. It has since pushed through the late-June peak to 7.4% of free float, with shares short rising nearly 14% on the week to around 13.7 million. That is the highest level in the 30-day window. Despite this buildup, the borrow market remains relaxed: availability runs near 680% — far above the 52-week low of 431% — meaning there is ample headroom for further short positioning without supply pressure. Cost to borrow has nudged up about 12% on the week to 0.50%, but that remains negligible in absolute terms. The short score has also drifted higher, now at 57.8 versus 54.2 two weeks ago, consistent with the steady accumulation of bearish positions.

Options traders have not followed the short sellers into the bearish camp. The put/call ratio hit 0.38 on July 30, still well below its 20-day average of 0.49 and sitting 1.7 standard deviations on the bullish side. That call-heavy skew has eased slightly from the extreme low of 0.02 seen earlier in the year, but it remains firmly below the defensive readings near 0.58 that characterised late June. The signal is less extreme than it was nine days ago but points in the same direction: options traders are positioned for upside. The stock itself closed at $110.01 on July 30, down 4.5% on the day but up 0.8% on the week — a choppy pattern that mirrors the broader peer group, where CPRT fell 4.1% and TTEK dropped 3.9% on the day while both posted weekly gains above 6%.

The analyst debate spans a wide range of outcomes. Raymond James upgraded to Strong Buy with a $145 target in late June, and RBC Capital holds an Outperform with a $150 target. Barclays trimmed its target to $121 on July 22 while keeping an Overweight, flagging near-term caution without abandoning the bull thesis. Stephens sits at Equal-Weight with a $96 target — essentially arguing the stock is fairly valued at current levels and that IAA integration risks are not yet fully resolved. Bulls emphasise the M&A runway, Q1 momentum, and the platform's ability to scale online volumes. Bears focus on the cyclical vulnerability of the legacy auction business, the uncertainty around used-equipment supply, and a valuation that leaves limited margin for error at a PE near 24.7x and EV/EBITDA above 16x.

The August 3 print is therefore a test of whether RB Global's integration story is translating into durable margin improvement — or whether the short sellers who built their largest position in weeks are pricing in a stumble the call buyers are unwilling to acknowledge.