RBA Short Sellers Ease Back but Bulls Haven't Fully Won

RB Global heads into its August 4 earnings release with short interest slightly off its recent peak — but the divide between bearish positioning and bullish options sentiment that defined the pre-print setup four days ago has narrowed only at the margins.

Short sellers pulled back modestly after the July 31 reading. Shares short fell about 1.2% on the day to 13.5 million, bringing SI down to 7.3% of free float — still elevated relative to the mid-July range of around 6.4%. That week-on-week increase of roughly 11% remains the story: shorts built aggressively through late July and have not fully retreated. The borrow market gives them no reason to hurry. Availability runs near 696%, well above the 52-week floor of 431%, and the cost to borrow has actually eased 3% on the week to just 0.43% — negligible. There is ample room for further short accumulation without any supply constraint. The short score edges lower at 57.7 versus 58.1 a few days ago, but that is noise around a level that remains meaningfully above where it stood in mid-July.

Options traders continue to lean the other way. The put/call ratio at 0.37 is roughly 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.47 — call-heavy positioning that has persisted even as short sellers pressed their case. That divergence is still the defining tension in this setup: one group is paying for upside exposure, the other is betting on disappointment.

The analyst community provides a wide range of views, and that spread matters heading into the print. Raymond James upgraded to Strong Buy in late June with a $145 target. RBC Capital holds Outperform at $150. On the other side, Stephens maintains Equal-Weight at $96 — a target 14% below the current price of $112.22. Barclays trimmed its target from $124 to $121 just last week while keeping Overweight, a sign of modest caution without conviction on direction. The consensus sits at hold, reflecting genuine disagreement rather than consensus comfort. Bulls point to IAA integration upside and M&A optionality. Bears flag integration execution risk, volume headwinds in the legacy auction business, and a valuation — PE near 23.5x, EV/EBITDA near 15.8x — that leaves little room for a miss.

The stock has given back 3.5% on the week despite a 2.3% bounce Monday, putting it at $112.22 — essentially flat on the month. Close peers have fared better recently: TTEK gained 4.6% on the week and CPRT added 4.2%, while ACVA fell 3.1%, making RBA's relative underperformance notable. The print will test whether the IAA integration is delivering the margin improvement bulls are underwriting — or whether the bear case on execution and volume is closer to reality.