GRPN arrives at Thursday's Q2 earnings report having added 14.6% over the past month and 6.9% last week alone, with a short base that has grown rather than retreated and a borrow market that remains functionally closed — a setup the previous week's notes flagged as approaching its sharpest test yet, and which has only tightened since.
The structural problem for bears is unchanged and compounding. Short interest climbed another 13.7% on the week to 32.6% of free float — 13.3 million shares — back at the cycle high. FINRA's fortnightly count confirms 13.4 million shares short with days-to-cover at 9.1 sessions. That mechanical exit constraint was already punishing; it now intersects with an imminent catalyst. The ORTEX short score reached 78.1 on July 30, its highest point in the current tracking window, up from 75.8 a fortnight ago. Bears who pressed during the brief pullback to $25.81 are now underwater by roughly 7%, with no clean path to cover before the print lands.
Availability tells the same story. Only about four shares remain available to borrow for every hundred already lent out — a 3.95% reading that is consistent with the single-digit availability that has defined this name throughout July. The lending pool has briefly recovered to the low double-digits several times this summer, only to collapse back to near-zero within days. Cost to borrow has eased from its mid-July peak near 2.77% to 1.89%, a modest loosening that has done nothing to alter the underlying scarcity. Options traders are not hedging — the put/call ratio runs at 0.38, slightly above its 20-day average of 0.36 but near the 52-week low end of 0.31, reflecting a market that is leaning bullish into the report rather than defensive.
The fundamental debate mirrors the positioning asymmetry. Bulls point to Groupon's operational leverage and bookings growth, and to a stock that has more than doubled since March despite a weak broader tape. Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating in May with a $13 target — roughly half the current price of $27.58 — a gap so wide it underscores how thoroughly the short thesis has been overrun by momentum. Smaller firms that carry Buy ratings hold targets north of $40, implying the restructuring story still has room. The bear case rests on management's own guidance: billings and revenue both projected to decline, with adjusted EBITDA compressing meaningfully. Pale Fire Capital holds 26.8% of shares, CEO Dusan Senkypl another 7.5% — and Senkypl sold 1.35 million shares at $16.54 in June, a transaction that now looks well below market. That insider sale at half the current price adds a layer of ambiguity: either the CEO sold too early, or the stock has outrun its fundamental value.
The August 6 print will test whether Groupon's operational trajectory can justify a price that already sits roughly $14 above Goldman's target, against a short base that has no clean exit and a borrow pool that may not reopen in time for bears to act on whatever the numbers reveal.
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