TLRY Borrow Pool Near Empty as Call Buyers Pile In

TLRY is flashing a rare split signal. The lending market is near its tightest point on record — yet options traders are flooding into calls, not puts.

Borrow Availability Collapses

Availability has fallen to just 3.5% — meaning roughly one share remains borrowable for every 28 already lent out. That's down from 16.6% just a week ago, an 79% tightening in seven days. The 52-week low sits at near zero, and TLRY is approaching it fast.

The cost to borrow, at 6.2%, has actually eased 21% over the past month. That may seem contradictory. But CTB reflects spot pricing on new loans. With so few shares available, the market is simply running out of inventory to price — not signalling comfort.

The ORTEX short score stands at 73.4. The lending factor ranks in the 1st percentile for availability across the universe. That's an extreme reading.

Options Traders Disagree

Here's where it gets interesting. While the borrow pool dries up, the put-call ratio has crashed to 0.16 — nearly 3.9 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.19. The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.01 to 1.18. Today's reading sits near the bullish extreme.

That means options buyers are overwhelmingly positioning in calls. Short sellers, on paper, are covering — SI % of FF has fallen 10.8% in one week to 1.47%. The stock is up 15% over the same period.

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Short sellers are exiting. Call buyers are pressing the bullish case. But the borrow market is simultaneously getting tighter, not looser.

What the Holders Signal

CEO Irwin Simon sold 62,353 shares at $4.20 on July 30 — a routine post-award disposal, all trades carry significance score of 1. Net insider activity over 90 days is modestly positive at $2.1M, though this reflects award grants rather than open-market purchases.

Analyst consensus remains Buy. TD Cowen's Robert Moskow cut the target to $5.00 from $7.00 in July. Mean target sits at $7.84 — a 69% premium to Monday's close of $4.64.

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Data Summary

• SI % of Free Float: 1.47% (down 10.8% week-on-week)
• Availability: 3.46% (down from 16.6% one week ago)
• Cost to borrow: 6.21% (down 21.6% over one month)
• Put-call ratio: 0.16 (–3.9σ below 20-day mean of 0.19)
• Short score: 73.4 (availability rank: 1st percentile)
• Price: $4.64, +15.1% past week
• Analyst consensus: Buy | Mean target $7.84