Nearly 29% of MARA Holdings' free float is sold short — one of the highest readings in the broader market — and that bearish conviction has been building. Short interest climbed roughly 6% over the past month to 108 million shares, even as it edged slightly lower on the week. Borrow remains cheap at 0.69%, and availability has loosened considerably — now near 58% versus a trough of just 15% in late July — meaning the lending market is not under pressure. Options traders are leaning the other way from the bears: the put/call ratio has slipped to 0.71, more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average, pointing to call-side demand rather than hedging. The stock itself is flat on the day at $11.75, up 3% on the week but down 5% over the past month.
The bull and bear debate on MARA is fundamentally a Bitcoin debate wrapped in a capital allocation story. Bulls point to the company's shift toward energy infrastructure and HPC work — anchored by the Long Ridge acquisition — as a path to higher-multiple revenues that could revalue the stock away from pure crypto exposure. The mean analyst price target of $18.13 implies more than 54% upside from current levels, and Citizens recently initiated with a bullish $24 target. But the consensus masks a wide gulf: Morgan Stanley, the most prominent bear, cut its Underweight target to $5.50 in early July, seeing dilution risk and BTC sensitivity as structural overhangs. Piper Sandler, while staying Overweight, trimmed its target to $13 just three weeks ago — barely above where the stock trades now.
Insider activity adds a cautionary note. The CEO, CFO, and General Counsel all sold shares on July 30 and again on July 17, following another round of selling on July 1. These are small amounts relative to total holdings, but the pattern is consistent: every recent insider transaction in the data is a sale, including the CEO unloading shares at $10.90 when the stock was weaker. Net insider selling over the past 90 days tops $5.4 million. BlackRock, MARA's largest institutional holder, added modestly to its nearly 16% stake through June 30, providing some passive-flow support, but active conviction from the buy side is harder to identify in the ownership data.
Tomorrow's print is less a test of whether MARA is mining efficiently and more a test of whether its pivot toward energy infrastructure and HPC can deliver a credible revenue mix that justifies a valuation sitting well above the bear case — at a moment when a near-record short base is waiting to see if the thesis holds.
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