CW heads into today's Q2 release with options sentiment having swung decisively toward the bullish side — a sharper move than the earlier preview captured.
The options shift is the clearest signal into the print. The put/call ratio has dropped further to 0.94, now running more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.25. That is the most bullishly positioned reading in the past year, a complete reversal from mid-July when the PCR was touching its 52-week high near 1.48. Investors are not hedging — they are shedding protection. The stock has recovered strongly to back it up: up 10% on the week to $748, even after a modest 1.2% dip on Wednesday.
Short interest does nothing to complicate that picture. Bears have been retreating. At roughly 1.9% of free float, short interest is low and flat — down 5.6% over the past month. Borrow conditions remain almost frictionless: cost to borrow has ticked up about 16% on the week but remains just 0.48%, and availability is extraordinarily loose at over 6,700% of short interest. There is no squeeze dynamic here, and no sign of mounting conviction on the short side.
The debate heading into the print is essentially about execution against a high bar. Bulls point to the momentum from Q1 — 14% EPS growth to $3.40, Defense Electronics revenue up 17.5% year-over-year, and guidance raised to 10-11% full-year revenue growth. The analyst community has been steadily ratcheting targets higher throughout 2026, with the consensus mean now at $822 — about 10% above the current price — though the most recent coverage from Stifel (July 20) and Citigroup (July 1) sits at Hold/Neutral ratings. Bears are focused on order timing risk: $50 million in Defense Electronics orders slipped out of Q3 2025 due to continuing resolution uncertainty, and percentage-of-completion accounting means revenue recognition can compress if contract milestones shift. Valuation leaves little room for disappointment — the stock trades at roughly 44x trailing earnings and 30.6x EV/EBITDA.
The Q2 print is therefore less a test of whether Curtiss-Wright is growing and more a test of whether the order book is rebuilding cleanly enough to justify the multiple and the bullish repositioning that has defined the past two weeks of trading.
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