SEI Bears Hold 32% of Float Ahead of Today's Print

Solaris Energy Infrastructure reports earnings today against one of the most charged short-interest backdrops in the oilfield services space.

The positioning story is dominated by short sellers. Nearly a third of SEI's free float — 31.7% — is currently sold short, a level that has climbed 23% over the past month. That monthly surge is notable: short interest was running closer to 25% of the float in early July, and the bears have added meaningfully as the stock rallied hard off recent lows. The stock itself gained 28% over the past week before shedding 4% on Wednesday, leaving it at $55.57. Despite the heavy short positioning, the borrow market remains surprisingly relaxed. Availability is running at roughly 199% — meaning nearly two shares are still available to lend for every share already shorted — and the cost to borrow is just 0.50%, barely moved in a month. That combination tells a specific story: short interest is high and growing, but there is no mechanical squeeze pressure building in the lending market.

Options positioning sharpened decisively heading into the print. The put/call ratio jumped to 0.47 on Wednesday — more than four standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.21. That is a dramatic one-day move in protective demand. For context, the ratio had been running below 0.22 consistently throughout July, making Wednesday's spike the most defensive single-day options read in recent months, though well short of the 52-week high of 3.17. The ORTEX short score has also held in a tight range near 68 for several weeks, ranking SEI in just the 5th percentile on short-score rank — indicating the signal points to persistent rather than easing short-side conviction.

The analyst community is broadly bullish but has been recalibrating. Nine analysts carry buy-equivalent ratings with no holds. The mean price target of $93.70 implies roughly 69% upside from Wednesday's close — a gap that reflects how sharply the stock has pulled back from levels analysts were targeting. Wells Fargo's Jerry Revich moved against the grain this week, upgrading to Overweight while simultaneously cutting his target from $82 to $73. Wolfe Research and Needham both initiated with bullish ratings in June and early July, with targets at $120 and $97 respectively. The bull case rests on Power Solutions: revenue from that segment beat projections by 35.7% in the most recent quarter and grew 53% sequentially, with EBITDA guidance pointing to $48–51 million and capacity exceeding 600 MW. Bears counter with the Logistics Solutions deterioration — EBITDA per deployed system fell 14.3% year-over-year, and the prior quarter's guidance called for a 10–15% sequential decline in fully utilised systems. The two segments are pulling in opposite directions, and the print will show which narrative is winning.

One institutional data point stands out. The 90-day insider net figure shows over $298 million in net sales, driven heavily by a single $149 million disposal from a 5% owner in early May. That kind of insider distribution at prices well above the current $55.57 level — sales were executed around $72–75 — adds context to why short sellers have been emboldened as the stock drifted lower. The earnings print today is therefore less a test of whether the Power Solutions build-out is real, and more a test of whether guidance for both segments is strong enough to convince a market sitting on 32% short interest that the bull case can close the gap to analyst targets hovering near $94.