GRPN has now reported its Q2 earnings — the catalyst that three consecutive notes flagged as the moment of reckoning for a heavily trapped short base — and the setup heading into the close is notably different from the one that defined July.
The structural picture has shifted at the margin, but not dramatically. Short interest slipped fractionally to 32.5% of free float — 13.25 million shares — down less than half a percent on the week and barely moved from the 32.6% cycle high flagged in previous notes. Days-to-cover remains 9.1 sessions per FINRA's fortnightly count. Bears who have held through the entire summer run have not been shaken out. The ORTEX short score is 78.2, essentially flat from the 78.1 reading at the end of July, confirming that the structural squeeze pressure has not released. Nine days of trading volume to fully cover is the same exit problem it was last week — the earnings print changes the narrative, but not the mechanics.
The borrow market tightened further into the event. Availability collapsed to just 1.0% on August 5 — one share available for every hundred already lent out — down from the 3.95% reading that previous notes described as "effectively sealed shut." That reading sits close to the 52-week low of 0.37%, which flashed on July 31. Cost to borrow jumped 34% on the week to 2.68%, the sharpest weekly move since early July, even if the absolute rate remains modest. The options market registered the same anxiety: the put/call ratio hit 0.42, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.36. That is the most defensive options reading of the past month, and it arrived on the day of the print itself.
The Street remains sharply divided. Goldman Sachs has held its Sell rating through multiple target revisions — raising to $13 from $10 in May, still less than half the current price of $27.29. Bulls at Northland and Roth have targets in the $44–$47 range, implying meaningful upside from current levels. The mean target of roughly $26 actually sits fractionally below Wednesday's close, a tension that highlights how wide the dispersion is rather than a clean directional signal. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.7x has compressed slightly over the past month. The P/E of 15.5x has drifted higher. Neither screams obvious value or obvious excess at this price level, leaving the argument more about execution than multiple. The ORTEX short score rank sits in the second percentile of the universe — almost no stocks carry more short pressure — while the EPS surprise rank is also in the second percentile, meaning the market has repeatedly underestimated Groupon's ability to beat. The last two earnings prints produced one-day moves of +9.1% and +12.2%, both followed by further gains over five days. That historical pattern was the reason the pre-earnings notes described this as a precarious setup for bears.
One data point worth noting on the ownership side: CEO Dusan Senkypl sold 1.35 million shares at $16.54 on June 11 — raising $22.3 million — when the stock was trading well below today's level. That sale predates the latest leg higher by more than six weeks. The 90-day net insider figure is positive at roughly 1.45 million net shares when awards are included, but the CEO's cash sale at $16.54 against a current price of $27.29 is a gap that the market will note. Pale Fire Capital holds 26.8% of shares and has not changed its position in the most recent filing, providing a stable anchor to the register.
What to watch now is whether the Q2 print actually triggers covering — the first clean fundamental reason bears have had to act — or whether the combination of a sealed borrow market, nine days to cover, and a stock that has already repriced well above sell-side targets means the trapped base simply holds, leaving the availability and short score picture largely unchanged heading into the next trading session.
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