PBR.A arrives at today's Q2 earnings release with short sellers having largely stepped aside — a positioning shift that began in late June and has continued through this week.
The short retreat that defined the pre-earnings setup four days ago has held firm. Short interest has now fallen to roughly 26.9 million shares, down from a peak near 45 million in late June — a drop of more than 37% over the past month alone. The borrow market remains equally relaxed: availability runs at 629% of outstanding short interest, meaning there are more than six shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted, and cost to borrow is negligible at 0.55%. None of these signals point to a crowd leaning hard against the stock. Options tell the same story — the put/call ratio of 0.14 is fractionally below its 20-day average and sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, suggesting no elevated demand for downside protection into the print.
The bull case rests on valuation and income. A P/E of just over 7x and an EV/EBITDA below 5.1x remain cheap by integrated energy standards, while Petrobras's dividend score ranks in the 98th percentile of the ORTEX universe — a rare combination of value and yield at this market cap. The stock has pulled back roughly 4% on the week after a strong month, closing at $16.48 after touching $17.15 earlier. Bears point to deteriorating earnings momentum: the 30- and 90-day EPS momentum scores rank in the bottom quarter of the universe, and forward estimates have been heading lower. GQG Partners added more than 77 million shares in the most recent filing period — a meaningful conviction buy from one of the company's largest active holders — while BNDESPAR trimmed nearly 170 million shares, an institutional divergence that captures the ongoing tug of war between income-focused buyers and those reducing Brazil macro exposure.
The May 2026 print offers the clearest recent reference point: the stock dropped 6.1% on the day after that release before partially recovering, losing 3.4% over the following five sessions. The Q2 print will test whether the valuation floor and the retreat of short sellers have created a more resilient base — or whether another disappointing earnings trajectory sends the stock back toward levels that pushed shorts to their June peak.
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