Three distinct signals converged on PBR.A this week. Options traders are overwhelmingly bullish. Short sellers are retreating. And the borrow market is quietly repricing.
The standout is the put-call ratio. It hit 0.1375 on August 17 — a four-year low. The 20-day mean sits at 0.14. The z-score of -4.20 puts this reading more than four standard deviations below average. For context, the 52-week high on the PCR was 0.7344. Options traders have rarely been this one-sided in favour of calls on Petrobras preferred shares.
Shorts have been unwinding since early July. Shares short peaked near 41.6 million on July 8. By August 14 that number had fallen to 24.5 million — a drop of roughly 41% over six weeks. The one-month change stands at -35.7%. Short sellers are clearly reducing exposure, not adding to it.
The borrow market reflects the same dynamic. Availability sits at 768% — well within normal territory. For every share currently lent out, roughly 7.7 remain available to borrow. That is not a tight market. The lending pool is deep and comfortable.
Cost to borrow has been volatile. It spiked to 0.87% mid-week before settling back to 0.58% by August 14. That intra-week spike is notable given how far short interest has fallen. Fewer shorts outstanding, but a momentary scramble for borrows, suggests positioning churn rather than new directional pressure.
GQG Partners added 77.7 million shares in the most recent reporting window, lifting its stake to 719 million. Capital Research and Management added nearly 28 million. BlackRock added 26 million. Three significant buyers, all reporting recently. The Brazilian government holds 29% and did not change its position.
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