ResMed heads into tonight's print with the two most visible positioning signals moving in the same direction — both pointing toward reduced conviction on the downside.
Short sellers have continued their post-July retreat. The position has eased from roughly 14.8 million shares in mid-July to 13.2 million now, pulling the float exposure to 9.0% from a recent peak above 10%. That unwind is not being reversed ahead of the print. The lending market offers nothing to accelerate it in either direction: borrow costs are negligible at 0.53%, and availability has expanded further to 270% of short interest — nearly three shares available to lend for every one already shorted. There is no squeeze pressure, and no friction stopping fresh shorts from entering.
Options have moved in lockstep. The put/call ratio at 1.13 is now roughly one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 1.59, close to the 52-week low of 1.02. As recently as mid-July the PCR was running above 2.0; the collapse in hedging demand over the past two weeks tracks the stock's 7% rally. The sharp drop in the PCR was already visible in the article published four days ago — it has since held at these lower levels rather than snapping back.
The analyst community entered this period in a notably bearish lean. Citigroup downgraded to Neutral in mid-July, cutting its target from $270 to $235. Morgan Stanley had already stepped back to Equal-Weight in June, trimming from $286 to $230. Mizuho and RBC maintained positive ratings but still cut targets. The consensus mean now sits at roughly $248, implying modest upside from the $223 close — but that number is being pulled up by a handful of bulls, not a resurgent Street. The core debate is familiar: bulls point to the 62.3% gross margin beat and 16% mask-sales growth as evidence of durable demand; bears focus on management's FY26 guidance trim to mid-single-digit growth and the lingering question of how aggressively GLP-1 adoption erodes the addressable sleep apnea population over time. EPS momentum scores rank in the 91st percentile over 30 days — the company has been beating estimates — but the forward earnings growth score at just the 31st percentile suggests the Street sees that momentum fading.
The print is therefore less a test of whether ResMed can beat a quarter and more a test of whether management has stabilised the FY26 outlook enough to give both retreating shorts and cautious analysts a reason to revisit their positions.
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