ResMed enters the second half of August in an awkward position — short sellers rebuilt positions aggressively following last week's earnings, yet the borrow market remains relaxed enough to suggest this is conviction-driven, not a squeeze setup.
The short interest angle is the most striking development of the past week. SI jumped 15% over seven days to reach 10.3% of free float — a meaningful acceleration from the roughly 13 million shares short that had been a floor for most of July. The step-change landed right on top of the August 7 earnings release, when the stock dropped 5.4% on the day after management trimmed the FY26 device-segment growth outlook from high-single-digits to mid-single-digits. That kind of guidance cut tends to invite fresh shorts, and the data confirms exactly that pattern played out. Despite the rebuilding, the ORTEX short score has eased slightly from 69 mid-week to 67.4, suggesting the momentum of the increase is starting to moderate.
The lending market, however, tells a different story about how crowded the short side really is. Availability is running at roughly 300% — meaning there are three shares available to borrow for every one already lent out — and it has actually loosened over the past week, up 11% from the prior reading. Cost to borrow is flat near 0.54%, barely off a floor. These are not the conditions of a market under stress. Short sellers can build positions freely, and there is no mechanical pressure on existing shorts to cover. The put/call ratio at 1.24 is sitting almost exactly on its 20-day average, with a z-score near zero — options traders are neither hedging aggressively nor expressing particular bullishness. Taken together, positioning looks deliberate rather than panicked.
The Street's reaction to Q4 results was mixed but directionally cautious. Most analysts who moved after the print trimmed targets while keeping their ratings in place — a "wait and see" message rather than outright capitulation. Keybanc held Overweight but cut to $255; RBC maintained Sector Perform and nudged to $244; Piper Sandler and Wells Fargo both trimmed to the $215-$225 range. This morning, Rothschild initiated coverage at Neutral with a $230 target — broadly in line with a consensus that has quietly compressed around the $246 mean, now roughly 12% above the current price of $220. Citigroup's downgrade in mid-July from Buy to Neutral, with a cut to $235, arguably set the tone for what followed: the macro bear case is no longer just about GLP-1 drug risk disrupting the addressable sleep apnea population; it now includes concrete evidence that international device volumes are disappointing, with out-of-US devices growing just 5% year-over-year. Against that, the bull case rests on 62.3% gross margins beating estimates, EPS of $2.81 ahead of forecasts, and mask sales growing 16% year-over-year — a combination that shows the core consumables business is still executing. The ORTEX factor scores reflect the ambiguity: EPS momentum is strong at 81 on a 90-day view but the short score rank sits in the 7th percentile, meaning RMD scores more bearishly on short positioning than 93% of comparable names.
Insider behaviour adds texture rather than alarm. CEO Mick Farrell sold roughly 5,000 shares on August 7 — the same date as earnings — for just over $1 million, continuing a pattern of near-monthly disposals that has been consistent since at least March. Founder Peter Farrell sold 8,000 shares on August 5 at $225. Neither trade carries a high significance score, and the regularity of the CEO programme suggests plan-driven sales rather than discretionary positioning. The net 90-day insider flow is a modest positive in share terms, though the dollar value sold is substantial — around $4.9 million net. There is no institutional move of note; BlackRock added modestly in the most recent filing period, and the top holders are broadly stable.
The next earnings date is October 29. Between now and then, the key question is whether the mid-single-digit guidance re-set proves conservative — as ResMed has historically used — or whether international demand continues to disappoint as GLP-1 adoption accelerates. The short rebuild that followed the August print will be the thing to watch: if SI continues climbing through September while availability stays loose, that is a market making a considered fundamental bet, not a technical position likely to unwind quickly.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open RMD on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
