GRPN dropped 7.8% on Thursday and is off another 10% on the week after reporting Q2 earnings — but the short-squeeze mechanics that defined this name all summer have not materially unwound, and that gap between narrative and structure is the story heading into Friday's session.
The borrow market tightened to its most extreme reading of the recent period into the event. Availability hit 1.0% on August 5 — one share available to borrow for every hundred already lent out — down from the already-thin 3.95% reading that prior notes flagged as near-shut. Cost to borrow jumped 34% on the week to 2.68%, the sharpest weekly move since early July. Short interest slipped fractionally to 32.5% of free float — 13.25 million shares — barely changed from the 32.6% cycle high. Days-to-cover remains 9.1 sessions. The ORTEX short score edged to 78.2, flat from 78.1 at month-end. Bears who held through the summer run have not been shaken out by the earnings print, and the mechanical exit problem — nine trading days to cover at current volumes — is identical to what it was before the catalyst landed. The options market had turned modestly more defensive ahead of the print, with the put/call ratio at 1.84 standard deviations above its 20-day average, and that hedging demand now looks prescient given the post-earnings slide to $25.15.
The fundamental debate remains sharply divided. Bulls had pointed to Groupon's operational execution — growing bookings, improving cash conversion, and a stock that more than doubled from March lows before the Q2 catalyst — as evidence the restructuring was gaining traction. Bears focused on management's own guidance: billings declines of 2.5% to 5%, revenue drops of 5% to 7.5%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance implying material year-on-year deterioration. Goldman Sachs, the highest-profile seller on the name, raised its target to $13 in May while holding a Sell rating — a price that sits less than half the current $25.15 level. That gulf between the Goldman target and where the stock trades reflects how differently the two camps are reading the recovery trajectory. The Northland and Roth Capital bull cases, with targets in the $44–$47 range, are predicated on a durability of operational improvement that the guidance numbers do not obviously support.
One ownership wrinkle worth noting: CEO Dusan Senkypl sold 1.35 million shares at $16.54 in June — a $22 million transaction representing more than 7.5% of the company — well before the stock's push toward the high $20s. That sale now looks timed at a relative low, but it was still a significant reduction by the chief executive ahead of what the bull case described as an inflection point. The stock's 52% year-to-date gain — even after this week's pullback — means any buyer since January is still in profit; the question is whether the June insider sale signals something about management's own conviction in the upper range of analyst targets.
The Q2 print is now in the market. What the next sessions will test is whether the 13.25 million shares still short — trapped in a near-closed borrow pool, facing nine days of volume to cover — treat the post-earnings dip as a profit opportunity worth the exit cost, or whether the structural mechanics that have defined this name all summer continue to hold the short base in place.
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