Loma Negra Faces a Softer Tape Into Today's Print

LOMA enters today's earnings release under visible price pressure, with the stock down 9% over the past week and nearly 9% over the past month to $10.79, making it one of the weaker performers among its construction materials peers heading into the print.

Options positioning has edged toward caution, though not dramatically so. The put/call ratio climbed to 1.14 on Thursday — roughly one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 1.07 — consistent with modest hedging demand rather than outright fear. That's well short of the 52-week high of 1.46, so options traders are leaning defensive but are not yet pricing in a worst-case scenario.

The lending market has loosened considerably in recent days, which tells a notably different story from the tight conditions seen earlier in the cycle. Availability has jumped to 116% — meaning there are now more shares available to borrow than are currently short — a sharp reversal from the sub-35% readings that persisted through much of July. Short interest itself has fallen nearly 29% over the past month and now represents just 1.2% of the free float, a low and declining level that removes any meaningful squeeze dynamic from the equation. Cost to borrow has also eased, running near 2.7% after touching close to 4% in early July.

The analyst backdrop remains broadly constructive but is notably stale. The most recent consensus, compiled around early May, pointed to a mean price target of $14.70 — implying roughly 36% upside from current levels. The last material moves came from Citigroup initiating at Buy with a $16 target and Morgan Stanley upgrading to Overweight in mid-2025, though both actions are now well over a year old and should be treated as directional context rather than live conviction. Bulls point to strong forward earnings momentum — LOMA's 90-day EPS momentum factor ranks in the 72nd percentile — while bears focus on Argentina's macro volatility and the stock's persistent quality deficit, with free cash flow metrics deeply negative and capital returns near zero. The EV/EBITDA multiple near 7.6x has drifted slightly lower over the past month, offering modest valuation support.

One data point genuinely worth watching in the earnings history: the last comparable print, in May, produced a one-day gain of nearly 12%, though the five-day follow-through faded to just 1.3%. The question the report will test is whether LOMA's construction volumes and pricing in Argentina can justify a rerating back toward the analyst consensus — or whether the recent selloff reflects a more fundamental deterioration the targets have yet to absorb.