Groupon: Earnings Done, Bears Still Stuck

GRPN fell 8.3% on its Q2 print. The stock is down 9.2% on the week. But the short base that defined the entire summer run has not moved. The structural problem for bears is identical to what it was before the earnings catalyst landed.

The Borrow Market Is Still Closed

Availability now sits at 0.63%. That is one share available to borrow for roughly every 158 already lent out — the tightest the lending pool has been across the entire tracking window. This has continued to worsen since the earnings release rather than recovering.

Cost to borrow reached 2.88% on August 7. That is up 52% in a single week. Lenders are charging significantly more even as the pool of available shares shrinks further.

Availability collapsed 84% week-on-week. The borrow market is not loosening in response to a lower share price. Bears who want to exit face the same mechanical constraint they faced heading into the print.

32.5% Short, Nowhere to Go

Short interest stands at 32.5% of free float — 13.25 million shares. That is down less than 0.05% on the day and 0.38% on the week. Bears have not covered in any meaningful volume despite a post-earnings decline.

Days-to-cover remains 9.1 sessions. At current trading volumes, full cover still takes more than nine trading days. That exit constraint has not changed.

The ORTEX short score holds at 78.2. It has been essentially flat — within a 0.3-point range — since late July. No structural unwind has occurred.

Options Confirm Defensive Posture

The put/call ratio hit 0.456 on August 7. That is 2.6 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.368. Put demand accelerated into earnings and has not retreated. The PCR has risen every session since July 28, moving from a 52-week low of 0.314 to its current level in ten trading days.

What Has Actually Changed

The narrative has shifted. Earnings are done. The stock has pulled back. Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell with a $13 target — well below current levels — and raised its target from $10 in May, suggesting even the most bearish analyst has been forced to adjust upward. Northland Capital carries an Outperform at $44.

What has not changed: 13.25 million shares short, availability below 1%, cost to borrow at a recent high, and nine trading days needed to fully cover. The Q2 print was the catalyst bears needed. The mechanics suggest they have not yet used it.

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• SI % FF: 32.5% (13.25m shares)
• Availability: 0.63% (84% tighter week-on-week)
• Cost to borrow: 2.88% (+52% week-on-week)
• Put/call ratio: 0.456 (z-score: 2.6σ)
• ORTEX short score: 78.2
• Price: $25.03, -9.2% on the week