AST SpaceMobile closed Friday at $71.94, up 22% on the week, and now faces its August 10 earnings release with a borrow market that has shifted materially since the frozen conditions of late July — while the structural short position remains almost entirely intact.
The borrow story has evolved again, and the direction is worth naming clearly. Availability has climbed to 13.0% as of Friday, up from the near-zero sub-1% readings that dominated the last two weeks of July. That move — from effectively seized to roughly one share available for every eight already borrowed — is the most open the lending pool has been since mid-July. Cost to borrow has edged back up to 1.30% from its recent low around 0.92%, though it remains well below the 1.58% peak recorded on July 27. What has not changed is the core position. Short interest is still 63.2 million shares, or 22.8% of free float — essentially unchanged from the 63.5 million reported in prior notes. Bears have not covered in any meaningful size. The extra availability entering the pool reflects new supply, not capitulation. That distinction remains critical going into the print.
Options traders are not sending a strongly defensive signal ahead of tonight's release. The put/call ratio is running at 0.45, fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.46 and a full half-standard-deviation below that mean — call volume dominates and has done so consistently throughout the pre-earnings drift. The PCR 52-week high is 0.67, meaning current levels are firmly in the bullish half of the range. For a stock carrying 22.8% short interest into a catalyst, the options market is not hedging; it is leaning into the rally.
The Street is split and the consensus is thin. No analyst carries a Buy-equivalent rating on the stock — the consensus is Hold, with one Underperform from Barclays (target $65) as the lone bear. Piper Sandler initiated coverage at Overweight with a $100 target in mid-July, and B. Riley upgraded to Buy at $85 around the same time. Scotiabank upgraded from Underperform to Sector Perform at the end of July but set a $50.80 target — well below where the stock now trades at $71.94. The mean target across the panel is $80.48, implying about 12% upside from current levels, which is a tighter cushion than it looked a month ago. Bulls point to the direct-to-device patent portfolio and MNO partnership pipeline; bears cite the capital intensity, operating losses, and Starlink's head start.
The insider register adds another layer of caution. CEO Abel Avellan sold 2.5 million shares at $58.68 in late June — a $146.7 million transaction. The CFO, CTO, COO, and President all trimmed positions between late May and mid-June, with the CFO selling in three separate tranches. The net 90-day insider figure is technically positive in shares but that reflects the mechanics of options exercises rather than open-market purchasing. No insider has bought in the window. That the CEO sold heavily while the stock was in the low-to-mid $50s — and the stock has since rallied to nearly $72 — adds an awkward note to the bull case.
Earnings history adds one more relevant frame. The two prior prints produced consistent day-one losses — down 10.2% after the June 12 report, and down 2.8% after the May 11 release. The five-day window was more variable: a 25% decline over five days following June's print, but a 15.7% gain over five sessions after May's. Bears are sitting on a 22.8% short base and have repeatedly declined to cover through the pre-earnings rally; whether the print validates or punishes that conviction is what tonight's numbers will determine.
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