AST SpaceMobile enters September with a new tension: availability has finally thawed from its near-frozen state, yet short sellers are quietly adding back positions into the 10% weekly price decline.
The lending market shift is the week's most significant development. Availability has climbed to 14.6% — still tight, but a meaningful step back from the 2–3% near-freeze that dominated late August. Two weeks ago this note flagged the lending pool was virtually locked; now there is roughly one share available for every seven on loan. That compares with a 52-week low of 0.31% hit in late July and a peak of 23% following the August 10 earnings print. The thaw matters because it gives new shorts actual room to act — and the data suggests they are using it. Short interest has risen 3.9% on the week to 58.2 million shares, now back to 21.0% of the free float. That reverses the trend from last month, when bears had trimmed roughly 12 million shares from their peak. Cost to borrow remains subdued at 1.21%, down 6.7% on the week — the constraint is no longer price, but the lending pool is no longer frozen either.
The options market is not yet alarmed. The put/call ratio reads 0.47, barely above its 20-day average of 0.46 and less than one standard deviation from normal. That puts it well inside the 52-week range of 0.32 to 0.67. Options traders are not rushing to hedge the 10% weekly drop — a reminder that the options crowd has maintained a broadly bullish skew throughout ASTS's volatile summer.
The Street has just added a fresh bullish voice. Berenberg initiated coverage on September 2 with a Buy rating and a $92 target — roughly 65% above the current $55.80 close. That sits above the current consensus mean near $78. The broader analyst picture remains constructive but selectively cautious: Piper Sandler holds Overweight but trimmed its target to $98 from $100 after the August earnings print, while UBS stayed Neutral and edged its target down to $78 from $80. The bull case rests on leadership in direct-to-device satellite connectivity, government contract expansion, and a strong IP portfolio. Bears point to execution risk around satellite deployment timelines, Starlink competition, and the dilutive capital structure that comes with pre-profitability hardware scaling. The ORTEX short score has crept to 71.1, its highest reading in the tracked window, and ranks in the bottom 2nd percentile of the universe on short positioning — a signal that the data-driven bear case remains structurally intact.
The ownership register carries an unusual feature worth noting. AT&T filed a Schedule 13D on ASTS in February 2025, and Rakuten Mobile holds a 13D position at 5.3% of class, down from 7.2% previously. Vodafone Ventures similarly filed a 13D/A, now at 5.0%. CEO Abel Avellan's 13D shows a steady 20.8% stake. These are strategic holders with disclosed activist-level filings — not passive index money. The caveat applies: 13D/G positions are event-driven disclosures around the 5% threshold, and any holder who drops below 5% may not file again. On the insider side, Director Adriana Cisneros purchased roughly $620,000 worth of stock in open-market transactions on August 31 — discretionary buys at prices between $57 and $59, with no 10b5-1 plan attached. That is a directional signal from someone close to the company, buying into the weakness.
The next scheduled earnings event falls on November 10. After the August print, the stock moved up 8% the following day before fading 2.5% over the subsequent five days — a pattern of sharp initial reactions that cool quickly. With availability now partially restored and short interest rebuilding, the borrow dynamic heading into Q3 results is worth tracking closely.
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