Almonty Industries heads into its August 12 earnings print with short sellers in full retreat — yet the stock itself has given back nearly 20% in a month, leaving bulls and bears facing the same question from opposite sides.
The most striking shift in positioning is the collapse in short interest. Bearish bets peaked near 21 million shares around July 30 and have unwound sharply since, falling to roughly 15.8 million by August 10 — a 20% decline on the week. That drop has driven the short score down from above 62 to 52.5 over the same stretch, its lowest reading in the recent history. Borrow conditions confirm the retreat: cost to borrow has fallen two-thirds on the week to just 0.54%, and availability has opened up dramatically to 265% — meaning there are now more than two and a half shares available for every one currently lent out. The lending market is loose, not stressed.
Options traders are leaning the other way from the bears. The put/call ratio is running well below its 20-day average — at 0.72 versus a mean of 0.88 — a reading nearly 1.6 standard deviations light on the defensive side. That points to call-side activity dominating, consistent with investors positioned for a positive catalyst rather than bracing for a miss.
The analyst community has stayed unambiguously bullish. The consensus carries eight Buy ratings with no dissenting voices, and DA Davidson lifted its target from $25 to $33 in early July — leaving the mean target at roughly $35, implying the Street sees more than 160% upside from the current $13.29 close. Bulls point to Almonty's secured offtake agreements, its Sandong mine reopening in South Korea, and tightening Western tungsten supply as China remains a net importer with no new production visible. Bears flag the demand side more than the supply side: as U.S. defense-sector "friendly-sourcing" rules redirect tungsten flows, other end markets may face shortages that complicate margin management at elevated prices.
One ownership development worth noting is FMR (Fidelity) adding 13.5 million shares in the most recent reporting period, lifting its stake to 11% and making it the largest single institutional holder. BlackRock and T. Rowe Price also reported new or significantly expanded positions. Against that institutional accumulation, insiders have been moving in the opposite direction — the Lead Independent Director sold approximately 400,000 shares across three transactions in early July, and the CEO sold 100,000 shares in June, all at prices well above the current level. The stock has since retraced those sale prices significantly.
Peer context underlines the gap. Correlated critical-minerals names including MP and TLO gained 25% and 43% respectively on the week — ALM's near-flat weekly performance looks soft by comparison, even as the broader theme of Western critical-mineral supply chains remains in favour.
The print will test whether Almonty's operational progress at Sandong is translating into the revenue and margin trajectory that justifies a target price more than double the current trading level — and whether the recent institutional accumulation was well-timed or premature.
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