Almonty Industries has delivered a sharp reversal since its August 12 earnings print — short interest has rebuilt aggressively while the stock recovered, creating a charged setup heading into the rest of the month.
The most significant development since the last note is the turnaround in short positioning. The prior article described shorts in full retreat, with bearish bets falling to roughly 15.8 million shares by August 10. That retreat has fully reversed. Short interest climbed back to 24.5 million shares by August 13 — a 47% jump on the week and now 10.5% of the free float. The one-month change is close to 50%, meaning the short book has nearly doubled in a month despite the stock rising 9% on Thursday alone. Borrow conditions, however, tell a calmer story. Cost to borrow is running near its lowest level in six weeks at just 0.54%, and availability remains loose at 187% — meaning nearly two shares are available for every one currently lent out. The lending market is under no stress; shorts can still get on easily and cheaply. The short score has climbed back to 62.5, matching levels seen in early August before the pre-earnings unwind.
Options positioning leans against the bears. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.73, about 1.4 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.87. That's the same call-heavy skew flagged ahead of earnings, and it has persisted through the print. The pattern points to options traders favouring upside exposure rather than hedging, even as short sellers rebuild on the other side.
The Street remains firmly bullish, with price targets sitting well above the current $15.09. DA Davidson maintained its Buy rating in mid-July with a $33 target — more than double the current price — after raising it from $25 earlier in the month. Oppenheimer held its Outperform rating with a $25 target in June. No analyst carries a Hold or Sell. The bull case centres on Almonty's position in the tungsten supply chain: a secure offtake agreement, mine expansion optionality, and growing demand from defence and semiconductor applications. The bear case is less about Almonty specifically and more about the broader supply picture — a redirection of tungsten material under "friendly-sourcing" rules could pressure margins if demand continues to outstrip available inventory. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to 9.4x on a 30-day basis, while the price-to-book of 6.6x has fallen nearly 1.8 turns over the same period, suggesting the month's pullback from highs has brought valuation back toward more defensible ground.
Institutional flows add texture to the bull camp. Fidelity (FMR LLC) is the largest reported holder at 11% of shares, having added 13.5 million shares in the most recent disclosed period through July. BlackRock added 5.1 million shares to reach a 2.1% stake. T. Rowe Price built a fresh 2% position. The aggregate picture is one of large institutions actively building exposure. On the insider side, the picture is less clean. The Lead Independent Director sold roughly 400,000 shares across three transactions in late June and early July, raising just over $6.5 million at prices between $21 and $24 — well above current levels. The CEO also sold roughly 100,000 shares in mid-June at $25. The 90-day net insider figure is technically positive at roughly 692,000 shares, but that is dominated by non-cash award grants rather than open-market purchases, so the net buys-versus-sells story is less straightforward than the headline implies.
The earnings history adds a final wrinkle. The two most recent prints produced next-day moves of +4.2% and +4.9% — both positive. The May print saw a 12.4% surge on the day followed by a 12% give-back over five days. The pattern suggests the stock tends to gap higher on results but has struggled to hold the move. The August 12 print followed that template: a positive day-one reaction, then a short-seller rebuild and a month-to-date price that is still down around 4%. With the next earnings event not until November 13, attention now turns to whether the short rebuild at these levels reflects conviction or opportunistic fading of the post-earnings spike — and whether the fresh institutional buying at lower prices creates a floor before then.
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