Ouster Bears Hold Their Ground at 11% of Float Ahead of Thursday Print

Ouster heads into its August 13 earnings report with a meaningful short position, a stock that has nearly doubled year-to-date, and analysts steadily lifting their targets — a setup that puts real pressure on the company to deliver.

Short sellers are running a genuinely elevated position into the print. At roughly 11% of free float, the short interest is high by any reasonable measure, and it has climbed about 7% over the past month even as the stock recovered. The borrow market itself, however, tells a more relaxed story. Availability is running near 199% — meaning there are roughly two shares available to lend for every one already shorted — and cost to borrow has eased to around 0.43%, down from 0.51% two months ago. There is no squeeze mechanics building in the lending pool. The ORTEX short score of 56.7 has also eased slightly from the high-50s seen in late July and early August, suggesting the momentum behind short positioning has softened somewhat. Options are offering no strong directional signal either: the put/call ratio of 0.51 is almost exactly in line with its 20-day average, sitting less than 0.2 standard deviations below the mean — close to the most neutral reading it has produced in weeks.

The analyst community has moved decisively in one direction ahead of the print. Northland Capital Markets raised its target from $38 to $60 in late July. Oppenheimer followed with a lift from $42 to $57. Both maintained positive ratings. The consensus sits at Buy, with a mean target of around $58 — about 28% above the current price of $45. The bull case rests on Ouster's expanding addressable market across smart cities, robotics, and industrial sensing, with the StereoLabs acquisition and ARGUS partnership cited as structural growth drivers. Bears push back hard on the balance sheet: cash fell 14% last quarter, the company carries no debt buffer, and the 19 percentage points of non-GAAP gross margin attributable to one-time royalties raises serious questions about the durability of the profitability story. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 90th percentile — Ouster has beaten estimates consistently — but that history creates its own bar to clear. Cantor Fitzgerald moved to Neutral in May, a dissenting voice in an otherwise bullish analyst consensus.

Insider activity adds a cautionary layer. The COO sold $1.35 million of stock on August 4, just days before the earnings date. A coordinated sale on June 12 saw the CEO, CFO, CTO, COO, General Counsel, and a chief-level officer all sell simultaneously at $38.82, generating a combined net disposal of over $5 million in a single session. The 90-day net insider figure shows net buying in share count terms — explained by option exercises — but the value of selling across the period is substantial. Taken together, the insider picture is one of consistent distribution into the stock's strength.

The print will test whether Ouster's underlying revenue trajectory — stripped of royalties and one-time items — is strong enough to justify a stock that has doubled in 2026, with a committed short base of 11% of float still betting the opposite.