Alumis Heads Into the Print Down 12% on the Week — Bulls Still Hold the Line

ALMS arrives at its August 14 earnings event having shed 12% over the past week and 13% over the past month, trading at $24.41 — yet the short-selling retreat documented in the prior preview has continued, and options positioning remains skewed toward calls rather than protection.

The short unwind is now even more complete. Short interest has dropped a further 19% over the past week alone, and is down 65% over the past month, settling near 4.9% of the free float. That is roughly half the level seen in mid-July, when borrowed shares topped 13 million. Borrow conditions confirm no squeeze pressure: availability has expanded further to over 1,140% of current short interest — meaning lenders hold more than eleven shares available for every one currently borrowed — and the cost to borrow is a negligible 0.45%. Options traders have not turned defensive despite the price drop. The put/call ratio is 0.34, more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.51, maintaining the call-heavy lean seen entering the prior print. The contrast is notable: the stock is weaker, but neither shorts nor options traders are pressing the bearish thesis harder.

The analyst picture divides clearly between conviction bulls and one cautious outlier. Most of the coverage — Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer, Chardan Capital, Guggenheim — carries Buy or Overweight ratings with price targets ranging from $34 to $55, all well above the current $24.41 price. HC Wainwright is the exception, sitting at Neutral with a $25 target that is almost exactly where the stock trades. The mean target of $40 implies roughly 65% upside from here, though that consensus was built when the stock was higher. The bull case rests on the TYK2 inhibitor pipeline targeting psoriasis and other immune-mediated diseases, with analysts projecting peak sales potential of $3.4 billion by 2035. Bears focus on the clinical-stage risks: efficacy and safety data are still pending across key indications, competition from established therapies is real, and the company must keep proving its science before the funding runway shortens. A Phase II SLE data readout expected in the third quarter is the next binary event bulls are watching beyond tonight's print.

Institutional ownership adds an interesting layer. FMR (Fidelity) added nearly 5.8 million shares in the quarter to July 31, making it one of the largest recent buyers at roughly 5.3% of shares. BlackRock added over 1 million shares in the same period. These are passive-to-active index flows that suggest institutional demand has not dried up even as the stock has pulled back. The insider picture is less constructive in the near term — a cluster of C-suite executives including the CLO, CMO, CSO, and CFO all sold small tranches on August 3 — though the sums involved (none exceeding $90,000) are consistent with routine share-plan liquidations rather than a directional signal.

The print will test whether Alumis can offer enough pipeline visibility — particularly on the SLE readout timeline and cash position — to narrow the gap between where the stock is trading and where the majority of analysts think it belongs.